Swine Flu
04-29-2009 | 03:19 PM
#11
Joined: Jul 2002
Posts: 32,546
Likes: 4,162
From: bolton
funny thing about a pandemic.
If you act quickly, treat, control and isolate it effectively you look like chicken little.
But in the beginning is the only time you can manage the numbers.
BUT if you let it go 100 cases become 1,000 almost overnight and 100,000 in a week.
The bound on containing and managing exponential growth probably is around 2,500-5000 cases.
Beyond that and you just don't have the manpower to chase down the leads anymore.
And jerry wasn't that the russian flu?
I had that one, too.
I'm Always reminded of it by pink floyd, comfortably numb,
Hello.
Is there anybody in there?
Just nod if you can hear me.
Is there anyone home?
Come on, now.
I hear youre feeling down.
Well I can ease your pain,
Get you on your feet again.
Relax.
I need some information first.
Just the basic facts:
Can you show me where it hurts?
There is no pain, you are receding.
A distant ships
smoke on the horizon.
You are only coming through in waves.
Your lips move but I cant hear what you're sayin.
When I was a child I had a fever.
My hands felt just like two balloons.
Now I got that feeling once again.
I cant explain, you would not understand.
This is not how I am.
I have become comfortably numb.
If you act quickly, treat, control and isolate it effectively you look like chicken little.
But in the beginning is the only time you can manage the numbers.
BUT if you let it go 100 cases become 1,000 almost overnight and 100,000 in a week.
The bound on containing and managing exponential growth probably is around 2,500-5000 cases.
Beyond that and you just don't have the manpower to chase down the leads anymore.
And jerry wasn't that the russian flu?
I had that one, too.
I'm Always reminded of it by pink floyd, comfortably numb,
Hello.
Is there anybody in there?
Just nod if you can hear me.
Is there anyone home?
Come on, now.
I hear youre feeling down.
Well I can ease your pain,
Get you on your feet again.
Relax.
I need some information first.
Just the basic facts:
Can you show me where it hurts?
There is no pain, you are receding.
A distant ships
smoke on the horizon.
You are only coming through in waves.
Your lips move but I cant hear what you're sayin.
When I was a child I had a fever.
My hands felt just like two balloons.
Now I got that feeling once again.
I cant explain, you would not understand.
This is not how I am.
I have become comfortably numb.
04-29-2009 | 03:23 PM
#12
Registered User
Joined: Dec 2001
Posts: 4,563
Likes: 0
From: Marblehead
It's been over 30 years since we've had this strain in the US, so not much active immunity around. This strain has had a nasty history. It is still too early to appreciate the sense of alarm. Being that it is springtime, is a big positive from a transmission standpoint. It would be better if the school year were over.
04-29-2009 | 03:24 PM
#13
Registered User
Joined: Apr 2003
Posts: 22,888
Likes: 3
From: Covington WA, USA
I believe the reason they are so concerned about avian and swine flu is that the virus can mutate within the animal population for a long time before shifting back to the human population. Thus, unlike normal seasonal flu, the human population isn't continuously adjusting its immune response to follow the shifts of the virus.
So while the normal human flu is more deadly under typical conditions (mainly affecting the very young and very old), it it the avian and swine flu that is more likely to cause massive global death tolls like we saw with the "Spanish Flu" in the early 20th century (much more likely to kill the normally healthy adults).
So while the normal human flu is more deadly under typical conditions (mainly affecting the very young and very old), it it the avian and swine flu that is more likely to cause massive global death tolls like we saw with the "Spanish Flu" in the early 20th century (much more likely to kill the normally healthy adults).
04-29-2009 | 04:01 PM
#15
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 22,578
Likes: 826
From: The (S)Low Country
I do not think the CDC or government is overreacting. I think the media has taken the ball and run with it causing some fear and panic. However, Jim and I are not young people anymore and neither of us wants to invite problems. As I understand it, humans have NO immunity to this flu and having had the flu (this year), I certainly do not want it again. As SpokesMan mentioned, I really was so sick earlier this year I didn't care if I died just to escape the misery I was in. It could be a serious threat, but I'm giving it a wait-see.
04-29-2009 | 04:19 PM
#16
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 22,578
Likes: 826
From: The (S)Low Country
Originally Posted by Emil St-Hilaire,Apr 29 2009, 07:57 PM
Tonight again,they were talking of closing the borders,both Mexican,and Canadian...
Should I cancel,my S.F-.09 yet ???
Should I cancel,my S.F-.09 yet ???
04-29-2009 | 04:34 PM
#18
Registered User
Joined: Dec 2001
Posts: 4,563
Likes: 0
From: Marblehead
There is cross immunity to influenca Type A virus antigenic "drifts" but NOT to "shifts." Drifts ocurr from year to year, but shifts are uncommon. When shifts occur, they are memorable and deadly. H1N1 has been around for a long time. Swine to human transmission is bad enough and ocurrs with some frequency in various parts of the world, particularly the subtropical orient. But, when/if it has drifted enough to result in EASE of human to human transmission, then you have a much more serious problem. Hence the alarm within the World Health Organization. The news cycle will soon catch up with the subtle distinction. This has much more serious potential than ordinary, circulating influenza. Though the numbers may be small right now, if there is ease of human transmission with this strain, there will be a serious consequences and an inordinate fatality rate. The real danger may be next winter, as human viremia settles into the populations. Let's hope for a high threshold transmission rate, and high percentages of subclinical infections developing active immunity. Otherwise, it could be as serious as a Type A strain shift.
Zzziippyyy,
