Kyras

I'm very used to fires as I've spent all of my almost 50 years in So Cal. Every summer and fall we have fires. This time, it's a new ball game altogether. It's scary enough to have all these fires going at the same time, but what's worse is that it's only October. We get Santa Ana winds for months starting now. Every time they kick up, we usually end up with more fires some where.

DrCloud

Wildfire is unique among catastrophic geophysical phenomena in that we have some level of control over its behavior. Unfortunately, our main control strategy for decades has been all-out suppression, which has had the result of the build-up of fuels in forests and scrub-lands that are overgrown and prone to the sorts of firestorms of the past few days in San Diego County and elsewhere in the region.

The group I managed at Los Alamos National Laboratory developed a state-of-the-art wildfire simulation system, and its use has increased our understanding of how fire behaves and how, in come circumstances, it can be managed. Unfortunately, none of this mattered at all when the Cerro Grande Fire torched the town's mountain backdrop -- and some 300 or so of its homes, about 10% of the community -- in 1999. Nor does this understanding help with the sort of extreme situations that routinely occur in Southern California when the Santa Ana is blowing.

By comparison, the big hazard where I live (hurricanes) are a walk in the park. Given a solid structure and supplies, you can survive a hurricane by just hunkering down and waiting it out. Even tornadoes can be handled this way (although you need a stronger structure, like a storm cellar). Wildfires are more like volcanic eruptions. Get out or get dead.

Good luck to all affected. HPH

cordycord

San Diego County is handling this fire quite well. To have a mass-evacuation work to perfection is amazing. The one complaint seems to be that California Fire does not seem to be using the full assets of the military to the benefit of all. There have been some military fire suppression helicopters and planes that apparently have been sitting idle because of some political / bureaucratic reason or another. Otherwise, the people and the assets of San Diego are showing everyone else how to handle a natural catastrophe.

edit--If you want to hear the real deal, go to www.kogo.com . You can stream the local AM radio station, and it is mostly direct accounts from people and professionals saying what is happening in real time.

DrCloud

Finger-pointing always happens in events like this, and there's usually a period of time (hopefully a short one) after it's all over when it really gets bad.

After the Cerro Grande fire burned the houses in Los Alamos, some of the Lab's weaponeers went so far as to propose (and I'm not making this up) that low-yield, tactical nukes should have been used to "snuff" out the firestorm.

That, of course, wouldn't go over at all well in California, and, thank goodness, it was greeted with derision in New Mexico as well.

It's a conceit to think that anyone, with any amount of equipment, can control these firestorms when they really get cranking. All that can be done is to await a change in the weather, which seems to be in the works for Southern California.

Hang in there. HPH

mikegarrison

This is compounded by people building homes and other structures in fire country. Because the homes are there, the all-out suppression continues to be the model all over the West.

BTW, the Governator claimed that the airplanes sat idle because the winds were too high for them to be used, which sounds perfectly legitimate to me.

I wonder to what extent climate change is playing in to this? It does seem to have gotten rainier in Socal, which contributes to the buildup of fuel.

paS2K

Glad that most of the SoCal folks are not involved in this tragic firestorm It's all over the news on CNN and BBC here in China.

RENDERMAN

Look at it on the bright side, those of you that are going to hell when you die.........Now you know what it feels like!!

cordycord

Fires and drought in Southern California are a fact of life. There are double or triple the amount of people who were here 25 years ago, and they build houses anywhere they will fit, including places that are difficult to guard against wildfires, mud slides, etceteras.

Let's face it, this is desert and always has been. We will always need water--I bet there will be a time when we start seeing desalinization plants here, as some politicians are already pushing for "toilet to tap" water systems. Ugh.

As for the climate change theory--Santa Ana winds have been documented in SoCal for as long as there have been documents. Add millions more people to the same area, and there will be consequences. Add more people to ANY natural distater (tornado, flood, fire, hurricane), and don't be surprised when the newscaster says "never have this many people been affected."

SSSnakeSSS

Last night's news was truly disturbing. The aftermath of the fires leave 4 to 6 inches of ash above the soil. It did look so baren since there was nothing growing and nothing but ash to see in every direction.

I feel so bad for the 1,500 homes burned to a cinder. I hope no more end up that way.

I saw that the weather was changing for the better wind wise, but until they can get more moisture in the area, it is going to be difficult to stop all of this.

S2000Patrick

Here is a satellite photo when the fires where at there most intense a couple days ago.