Market watch, 2011
01-03-2011, 06:54 AM
#1
Thread Starter
Market watch, 2011
Time to kick off the new financial year. What better way than with a new thread? This morning, the market is off with a bang, up over 100 points on the Dow:
http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/03/markets/ma...wyork/index.htm
I looked back at the 2010 market watch thread and saw that I predicted a year end dow of 11,000. I was a bit under (thankfully). How close was your guess?
What are your thoughts on 2011? Will it turn out as well as 2010?
http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/03/markets/ma...wyork/index.htm
I looked back at the 2010 market watch thread and saw that I predicted a year end dow of 11,000. I was a bit under (thankfully). How close was your guess?
What are your thoughts on 2011? Will it turn out as well as 2010?
01-03-2011, 09:44 AM
#2
I predicted 12000. Here are 10 predictions Merrill Lynch is making for 2011 from their Chief Equity Strategist whose predictions for 2010 were very accurate:
As a way of discussing our economic and market views for the coming year, we present our 10 predictions for 2011:
1. US growth accelerates as US real GDP reaches a new all-time high.
2. The US economy creates two to three million jobs in 2011 as the unemployment rate falls to 9%.
3. US stocks experience a third year of double-digit percentage returns for the first time in more than a decade as earnings reach a new all-time high.
4. Stocks outperform bonds and cash.
5. The US stock market outperforms the MSCI World Index.
6. The United States, Germany and Brazil outperform Japan, Spain and China.
7. Commodities and emerging market currencies outperform the US dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen.
8. Strong balance sheets and free cash flow lead to significant increases in dividends, share buybacks, mergers and acquisitions and business reinvestment.
9. Investor capital flows move from bond funds to equity funds.
10. The 2012 Presidential campaign sees a plethora of Republican candidates while President Obama continues to move to the political center.
For some context around these predictions, we expect to see continued improvement
in US economic growth, especially the quality of that growth. This trend, coupled with improved business and consumer confidence as well as a less hostile capital markets attitude from Washington, DC, should lead to another reasonably good year for risk assets including equities in particular. Our 1,350+ S&P 500 Index target implies that the stock market should appreciate at least in line with earnings with the risks skewed more to the upside than was the case last year. The cyclical recovery should continue, but at a less-than-normal pace due to the structural problems that continue to face most of the developed world. In this environment, the Fed will likely remain accommodative, which will probably result in some further steepening of the yield curve. Equities are likely to surpass fixed income as the preferred asset class, both in terms of price appreciation and investor flows. We expect the US stock market to outperform the MSCI World Index again in 2011. The gap between the higher growth rates in the developing world and the lower ones of the developed world will likely shrink somewhat in 2011, causing less differentiation in equity returns.
Bob Doll is Chief Equity Strategist for Fundamental Equities at BlackRock®, a premier provider of global investment management, risk management and advisory services. Mr. Doll is also Lead Portfolio Manager of BlackRock’s Large Cap Series Funds. Prior to joining the firm, Mr. Doll was President and Chief Investment Officer
of Merrill Lynch Investment Managers.
2011: A Look Ahead
December 31, 2010
As a way of discussing our economic and market views for the coming year, we present our 10 predictions for 2011:
1. US growth accelerates as US real GDP reaches a new all-time high.
2. The US economy creates two to three million jobs in 2011 as the unemployment rate falls to 9%.
3. US stocks experience a third year of double-digit percentage returns for the first time in more than a decade as earnings reach a new all-time high.
4. Stocks outperform bonds and cash.
5. The US stock market outperforms the MSCI World Index.
6. The United States, Germany and Brazil outperform Japan, Spain and China.
7. Commodities and emerging market currencies outperform the US dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen.
8. Strong balance sheets and free cash flow lead to significant increases in dividends, share buybacks, mergers and acquisitions and business reinvestment.
9. Investor capital flows move from bond funds to equity funds.
10. The 2012 Presidential campaign sees a plethora of Republican candidates while President Obama continues to move to the political center.
For some context around these predictions, we expect to see continued improvement
in US economic growth, especially the quality of that growth. This trend, coupled with improved business and consumer confidence as well as a less hostile capital markets attitude from Washington, DC, should lead to another reasonably good year for risk assets including equities in particular. Our 1,350+ S&P 500 Index target implies that the stock market should appreciate at least in line with earnings with the risks skewed more to the upside than was the case last year. The cyclical recovery should continue, but at a less-than-normal pace due to the structural problems that continue to face most of the developed world. In this environment, the Fed will likely remain accommodative, which will probably result in some further steepening of the yield curve. Equities are likely to surpass fixed income as the preferred asset class, both in terms of price appreciation and investor flows. We expect the US stock market to outperform the MSCI World Index again in 2011. The gap between the higher growth rates in the developing world and the lower ones of the developed world will likely shrink somewhat in 2011, causing less differentiation in equity returns.
Bob Doll is Chief Equity Strategist for Fundamental Equities at BlackRock®, a premier provider of global investment management, risk management and advisory services. Mr. Doll is also Lead Portfolio Manager of BlackRock’s Large Cap Series Funds. Prior to joining the firm, Mr. Doll was President and Chief Investment Officer
of Merrill Lynch Investment Managers.
2011: A Look Ahead
December 31, 2010
01-03-2011, 01:01 PM
#3
Wow, at first I thought these ^^^ were YOUR predictions, Ray 
With the uptick at the end of the year, our portfolio is now 56% stocks vs. 44% bonds/cash. According to Vanguard financial plan update that we did, this relatively 'conservative' mix only gives up a couple % pts in a bull market and has much less risk in a bear market. At the very end of 2010, I shifted a lump of index funds into Vangd's Extended Market Fund....thus increasing exposure to Small Cap and Mid Cap stocks.
Here's a line from our Money Market transactions. I looked at it online and wondered WTF is that tiny number? Then I realized that it's the December Interest on our lower 5-digit Money Market fund
Luckily, we have some other sources for monthly cash needs 
With the uptick at the end of the year, our portfolio is now 56% stocks vs. 44% bonds/cash. According to Vanguard financial plan update that we did, this relatively 'conservative' mix only gives up a couple % pts in a bull market and has much less risk in a bear market. At the very end of 2010, I shifted a lump of index funds into Vangd's Extended Market Fund....thus increasing exposure to Small Cap and Mid Cap stocks.
Here's a line from our Money Market transactions. I looked at it online and wondered WTF is that tiny number? Then I realized that it's the December Interest on our lower 5-digit Money Market fund
12/31/2010 Dividend 1.120 $1.00 $1.12
01-03-2011, 01:27 PM
#4
Thread Starter
Originally Posted by S2KRAY,Jan 3 2011, 01:44 PM
I predicted 12000. Here are 10 predictions Merrill Lynch is making for 2011 from their Chief Equity Strategist whose predictions for 2010 were very accurate:
As a way of discussing our economic and market views for the coming year, we present our 10 predictions for 2011:
1. US growth accelerates as US real GDP reaches a new all-time high.
2. The US economy creates two to three million jobs in 2011 as the unemployment rate falls to 9%.
3. US stocks experience a third year of double-digit percentage returns for the first time in more than a decade as earnings reach a new all-time high.
4. Stocks outperform bonds and cash.
5. The US stock market outperforms the MSCI World Index.
...
As a way of discussing our economic and market views for the coming year, we present our 10 predictions for 2011:
1. US growth accelerates as US real GDP reaches a new all-time high.
2. The US economy creates two to three million jobs in 2011 as the unemployment rate falls to 9%.
3. US stocks experience a third year of double-digit percentage returns for the first time in more than a decade as earnings reach a new all-time high.
4. Stocks outperform bonds and cash.
5. The US stock market outperforms the MSCI World Index.
...
01-03-2011, 01:45 PM
#5
Registered User
Originally Posted by S2KRAY,Jan 3 2011, 01:44 PM
8. Strong balance sheets and free cash flow lead to significant increases in dividends, share buybacks, mergers and acquisitions and business reinvestment.
9. Investor capital flows move from bond funds to equity funds.
9. Investor capital flows move from bond funds to equity funds.
Personally I am smiling from ear to ear right now.
01-03-2011, 02:10 PM
#7
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Flintstone GA
Posts: 12,471
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I'm pretty optimistic. I'm leaving my 401K alone with higher growth potential with higher risk but my brokerage account is mostly blue chips with good dividends.
Still regretting the knee jerk on AAPL though. That was about a 50K mistake.
Still regretting the knee jerk on AAPL though. That was about a 50K mistake.
Trending Topics
01-03-2011, 02:26 PM
#8
Registered User
Originally Posted by paS2K,Jan 3 2011, 05:59 PM
Big bonus from Wally, Dave 
More like shrewd investing paid off for 2010
01-03-2011, 06:54 PM
#10
Thread Starter
I'm not saying they are wrong. I'm just sayin'...