Oh, sorry.

There's no way I can have an opinion about this that's more informed than the Gray group's. I don't even know the climatology (what's the average over the past, say, 40 years of the number of named storms per year?).

I can say that, about this time last year, we bought a 3.7KW generator, and pretty soon I'll replenish the stash of various hurricane supplies. And I know how to put up the storm panels quite efficiently, and do so at the drop of a hat.

These seasonal outlooks have, as I said, marginal skill. But that's enough to make them of value to re-insurers and other organizations that play small odds. Personally, I don't see that these outlooks are of any particular value to us as individuals, though. Even in a season with only one or two named storms, that one can be the one that runs through your area. Remember Andrew? HPH

 

I'm sure they crunch a lot of data to make these estimates. Better to put it out and be wrong than to say nothing and be surprised.

 

My point wasn't about truth, it was about sarcasm.

The 'experts' complained that their predictions were wrong last year because of El Nino. Well, if they were factoring all sorts of computer inputs, why didn't the computers show that an El Nino was starting to form?

 

I had the unenviable experience of doing a research cruise with Gray and his band of modelers when I worked aboard the R/V Gyre at Texas A&M.

The guy was both a goofball and an arrogant jerk at the same time. His entire cruise was a disaster from the get-go, primarily due to completely unrealistic planning on his part. Yet he then attempted to blame every single thing that went wrong on everyone else.

I therefore find it comical when his forecasts are utterly wrong, the more wrong the better I say!

That said there are some (weather) models and some modelers who are doing an excellent job.
I'll be out in Bermuda for a good bit of the season, that's where all those hurricanes which turn "Safely out to sea" head. So I ALWAYS hope for a slow hurricane year, regardless of what the modelers say. (Though I do usually prepare for the worst having lost 2 boats and 2 houses to hurricanes over the past 25 years).

 

I've known him for a long time.

And you're too kind, actually. HPH