Future of America's auto industry
05-13-2009, 01:06 PM
#14
Can you say FORD?
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05-13-2009, 02:09 PM
#16
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I think Ford will survive. The 2010 contract negotiations with the UAW should be interesting. In any event, Ford will downsize and close a lot of plants.
Something resembling GM will survive and produce a modest number of models in each of the major sectors. They will shrink in size severely, and their prospects will not be clear until after the UAW contracts expire in 2010. The government will keep throwing money at them, and in turn force GM to get in bed with it's downsized union labor force.
The European and Asian car companies plus Ford and a bastardized GM will continue to supply a myriad of desirable automobiles for public consumption. However, they cannot meet US automobile demand for quality, reasonably priced cars, which likely will result in steadily rising automobile prices.
At the last Asian car exposition, the Chinese came out with 8 (?) different models in a myriad of sizes and designs. I look for them to enter the US car market in a big way, within the next 5 years. There will be a market for them to produce economical cars in a demand vs. supply situation.
I also would not be surprised if VW re-entered manufacturing in the US. They are now the world's largest automobile manufacturer, and they are increasing their market share here.
Don't dismiss a consortium of US investors not taking advantage of GM's fall and continuing joint US government and UAW quagmire. The suppliers are there, lots of empty automobile plants are there, lots of people with dealership experience are there, and there are lots of people willing to work for more reasonable wages.
Whatever the Big 3's management and labor unions have not yet destroyed, the government's meddling will finish them off as a competitive force in the automobile market. Government involvement in the US automobile business is the worst thing that could have happened. Honda, Toyota, and Nissan did not/do not want the Big 3 to fail, because they were inept and easy competition.
As Milton Friedman said, "if the government was put in charge of the Sahara Desert, after just a few years there would be no sand."
Americans will soon get used to buying quality reliable cars and keep them for 10 years, just like the Europeans and Asians. The era of disposable American cars is over. .
Something resembling GM will survive and produce a modest number of models in each of the major sectors. They will shrink in size severely, and their prospects will not be clear until after the UAW contracts expire in 2010. The government will keep throwing money at them, and in turn force GM to get in bed with it's downsized union labor force.
The European and Asian car companies plus Ford and a bastardized GM will continue to supply a myriad of desirable automobiles for public consumption. However, they cannot meet US automobile demand for quality, reasonably priced cars, which likely will result in steadily rising automobile prices.
At the last Asian car exposition, the Chinese came out with 8 (?) different models in a myriad of sizes and designs. I look for them to enter the US car market in a big way, within the next 5 years. There will be a market for them to produce economical cars in a demand vs. supply situation.
I also would not be surprised if VW re-entered manufacturing in the US. They are now the world's largest automobile manufacturer, and they are increasing their market share here.
Don't dismiss a consortium of US investors not taking advantage of GM's fall and continuing joint US government and UAW quagmire. The suppliers are there, lots of empty automobile plants are there, lots of people with dealership experience are there, and there are lots of people willing to work for more reasonable wages.
Whatever the Big 3's management and labor unions have not yet destroyed, the government's meddling will finish them off as a competitive force in the automobile market. Government involvement in the US automobile business is the worst thing that could have happened. Honda, Toyota, and Nissan did not/do not want the Big 3 to fail, because they were inept and easy competition.
As Milton Friedman said, "if the government was put in charge of the Sahara Desert, after just a few years there would be no sand."
Americans will soon get used to buying quality reliable cars and keep them for 10 years, just like the Europeans and Asians. The era of disposable American cars is over. .
05-13-2009, 04:03 PM
#17
Registered User
Originally Posted by dlq04,May 13 2009, 01:09 PM
Honda's conservative approach is making them look like the smartest player in the game, that's for sure.
They are and have been for a long time now.
05-13-2009, 04:10 PM
#18
Registered User
Originally Posted by RC - Ryder,May 13 2009, 06:09 PM
Americans will soon get used to buying quality reliable cars and keep them for 10 years, just like the Europeans and Asians. The era of disposable American cars is over. .
05-13-2009, 04:23 PM
#19
That is the next shoe to drop. People who have leases and car purchases that they cannot afford. Even in this bad time, car dealerships are advertising to come in and buy a new car, even if you are $10,000 upside down on your current car loan.
