Independent Estimate of USDM S2000 Monthly Production
#61
Thread Starter
Chuck, yes, GVWR numbers never changed. OTOH, from a safety/load-bearing perspective, the car's mass and suspension never changed significantly. (It's a different story from a handling perspective, as I know very well.)
To your other question -- there were enough differences between the U.S. markets and the JDM/EDM markets that I would bet the factory scheduled "runs" dedicated to each. Within a run, I'm sure you're right that the production line didn't proceed in strict VIN order, but it's reasonable to expect that any given run of U.S. VINs would finish on its scheduled day. If a run ended before the month's end, and the next didn't start till the new month, then there'd be no "discrepancies". More commonly, though, U.S. runs would have spanned a month boundary, in which case one or two days' worth of VINs (anywhere from 10 to 100 cars, based on the data) would probably result in a few "out-of-order" VINs. For the purposes of this study, my "resolution", in terms of VIN samples, is on the order of 40 or 50 cars, so I wouldn't expect to see many such cases, except by sheer luck -- and, indeed, I haven't!
To your other question -- there were enough differences between the U.S. markets and the JDM/EDM markets that I would bet the factory scheduled "runs" dedicated to each. Within a run, I'm sure you're right that the production line didn't proceed in strict VIN order, but it's reasonable to expect that any given run of U.S. VINs would finish on its scheduled day. If a run ended before the month's end, and the next didn't start till the new month, then there'd be no "discrepancies". More commonly, though, U.S. runs would have spanned a month boundary, in which case one or two days' worth of VINs (anywhere from 10 to 100 cars, based on the data) would probably result in a few "out-of-order" VINs. For the purposes of this study, my "resolution", in terms of VIN samples, is on the order of 40 or 50 cars, so I wouldn't expect to see many such cases, except by sheer luck -- and, indeed, I haven't!
#62
Haven't been on s2ki in a while but ran across this thread.
I had to log in a give thanks to OP twohoos for all of this research.
Amazing work! Very impressive. Thank you.
I own MY2000 - 0222. I know you know the prod month from previous post of close vin.
I'm going to bookmark this thread for later reference. Its good.
Chris
I had to log in a give thanks to OP twohoos for all of this research.
Amazing work! Very impressive. Thank you.
I own MY2000 - 0222. I know you know the prod month from previous post of close vin.
I'm going to bookmark this thread for later reference. Its good.
Chris
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twohoos (03-06-2021)
#63
Thread Starter
Minor data update; also revisited the text for consistency with newly discovered facts.
#65
Thread Starter
^ 3/'02
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twohoos (03-09-2021)
#67
Thread Starter
I've updated Part 4 (excerpted below) with an update regarding new findings about the start of AP2 production in the summer of 2003. These new findings have been incorporated in the table/charts in Parts 1 & 2 as part of my routine (~bi-monthly) data updates.
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[Update, Nov'19] Another new data point came in from a recent BaT auction featuring MY04 VIN #0026, the fourth-ever production AP2! Up until now (late-Nov '19) the data in the first post of this thread concluded that MY04 production had begun in Sept. 2003. Well, not so fast:
July!? WTF?! MY03 production was still going strong: over 400 '03s were made in July, over 300 in August, and even a few dozen in September!
Now, MY04 VINs 001-022 are invalid, i.e. presumably AP2 development and prototype examples. What's surprising is how some of these very early AP2 chassis were certified as production examples. [Update, Apr'21]: Things suddenly became clear when I ran across this:
Yes, VIN #028 was apparently two cars and two *months* later! But it gets better: MY04 VIN #027 is invalid! So in fact VINs 026 and 028 are *consecutive*! At last, the pieces all fit: Once the plan for the AP2 was approved, Honda would naturally have begun making early prototypes while MY03 production was still going. Eventually, they would have decided they'd worked out the kinks and had demonstrated a handful of production-quality chassis (VINs 023-026). So they pause production during August while they get final approval and build up the necessary inventory of AP2-specific parts, so that "full-rate" production can continue in September without a hitch. That first September AP2 chassis, VIN #027, is set aside as the final quality-check example, and then production resumes as normal. This scenario fits nicely with the fact that the first Suzuka chassis, VIN #S0001 (built 8 months later), is likewise invalid -- presumably also reserved as an initial quality-check example.
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[Update, Nov'19] Another new data point came in from a recent BaT auction featuring MY04 VIN #0026, the fourth-ever production AP2! Up until now (late-Nov '19) the data in the first post of this thread concluded that MY04 production had begun in Sept. 2003. Well, not so fast:
July!? WTF?! MY03 production was still going strong: over 400 '03s were made in July, over 300 in August, and even a few dozen in September!
Now, MY04 VINs 001-022 are invalid, i.e. presumably AP2 development and prototype examples. What's surprising is how some of these very early AP2 chassis were certified as production examples. [Update, Apr'21]: Things suddenly became clear when I ran across this:
Yes, VIN #028 was apparently two cars and two *months* later! But it gets better: MY04 VIN #027 is invalid! So in fact VINs 026 and 028 are *consecutive*! At last, the pieces all fit: Once the plan for the AP2 was approved, Honda would naturally have begun making early prototypes while MY03 production was still going. Eventually, they would have decided they'd worked out the kinks and had demonstrated a handful of production-quality chassis (VINs 023-026). So they pause production during August while they get final approval and build up the necessary inventory of AP2-specific parts, so that "full-rate" production can continue in September without a hitch. That first September AP2 chassis, VIN #027, is set aside as the final quality-check example, and then production resumes as normal. This scenario fits nicely with the fact that the first Suzuka chassis, VIN #S0001 (built 8 months later), is likewise invalid -- presumably also reserved as an initial quality-check example.
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Last edited by twohoos; 04-30-2021 at 02:24 PM.