Bad economy?
02-26-2009, 05:07 AM
#81
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Well, I think Bill's statement has merit.
yes, there are more folks hurting today than there were say 2-3 years ago. some of us right here are feeling the pain. but, take a look around when you go out...
I was at the Providence Place Mall last night and the place was just as packed as I can ever remember seeing it, especially for a week night. Everyone had bags full of stuff and smiles on their faces. The food court was rocking with patrons and the Apple store was almost impossible to walk around in.
I notice people are driving around just as much and doing the same stuff they used to.
So yes, some people are taking a hit, but I believe it is the minority of folks. It might just be that the minority of folks are majority of the people some of us know.
yes, there are more folks hurting today than there were say 2-3 years ago. some of us right here are feeling the pain. but, take a look around when you go out...
I was at the Providence Place Mall last night and the place was just as packed as I can ever remember seeing it, especially for a week night. Everyone had bags full of stuff and smiles on their faces. The food court was rocking with patrons and the Apple store was almost impossible to walk around in.
I notice people are driving around just as much and doing the same stuff they used to.
So yes, some people are taking a hit, but I believe it is the minority of folks. It might just be that the minority of folks are majority of the people some of us know.
02-26-2009, 05:53 AM
#82
well bill you know the old saying.
when your neighbor loses his job it's a recession,
when you lose your job it's a depression.
and gas was not $3.00 a gallon in the late 70 and early 80's.
if you recall it was a big deal when gas cracked a buck becuase most pumps couldn't handle 3 digits.
when your neighbor loses his job it's a recession,
when you lose your job it's a depression.
and gas was not $3.00 a gallon in the late 70 and early 80's.
if you recall it was a big deal when gas cracked a buck becuase most pumps couldn't handle 3 digits.
02-26-2009, 08:35 AM
#83
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Originally Posted by boltonblue,Feb 26 2009, 09:53 AM
well bill you know the old saying.
when your neighbor loses his job it's a recession,
when you lose your job it's a depression.
and gas was not $3.00 a gallon in the late 70 and early 80's.
if you recall it was a big deal when gas cracked a buck becuase most pumps couldn't handle 3 digits.
when your neighbor loses his job it's a recession,
when you lose your job it's a depression.
and gas was not $3.00 a gallon in the late 70 and early 80's.
if you recall it was a big deal when gas cracked a buck becuase most pumps couldn't handle 3 digits.
02-26-2009, 09:25 AM
#84
bill's assertion did not say inflation adjusted.
yes gas was expensive then too.
the worldwide OPEC squeeze on oil production created a worldwide economic slowdown.
We had the triple whammy of staggering interest rates, high inflation, and high unemployment.
you could argue it was the beginning of the end for Detroit.
this was when small Japanese sedans got a permanent foothold.
yes gas was expensive then too.
the worldwide OPEC squeeze on oil production created a worldwide economic slowdown.
We had the triple whammy of staggering interest rates, high inflation, and high unemployment.
you could argue it was the beginning of the end for Detroit.
this was when small Japanese sedans got a permanent foothold.
02-26-2009, 09:45 AM
#86
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Well, I am not old enough to remember past recessions/depressions. But I think it's not enough to look at just couple selected stats and make a determination whether this current recession is not as worse as the past. For one thing, current recession is not concluded and can head to a lot worse.
I think there are several areas that are worse off now than previous recessions:
1. The wide spread and depth of debts from individual to companies to the government itself. Even 5 years ago we had debt ratio (outstanding debt/income) that exceeded the previous high just before the Great Depression. I can't imagine what it looks like today.
2. The collapse of investment banks
3. American staple companies on the verge of bankruptcy. If the Big 3 do go into bankruptcy unemployment rate will shoot over 10% in no time.
As bad as the mortgage situation is now caused mostly by sub-prime loans and over-leveraged credit swap, it'll most likely get a lot worse over the upcoming year when many adjustable rate mortgages are due for renewal/refi (aka the second wave). Most of these loans are upside down and I am guessing many of them do not have the cash to offset the value difference plus 10%+ down payment.
It may not be as bad as previous recessions now, but the outlook could be a lot lot worse.
I think there are several areas that are worse off now than previous recessions:
1. The wide spread and depth of debts from individual to companies to the government itself. Even 5 years ago we had debt ratio (outstanding debt/income) that exceeded the previous high just before the Great Depression. I can't imagine what it looks like today.
2. The collapse of investment banks
3. American staple companies on the verge of bankruptcy. If the Big 3 do go into bankruptcy unemployment rate will shoot over 10% in no time.
As bad as the mortgage situation is now caused mostly by sub-prime loans and over-leveraged credit swap, it'll most likely get a lot worse over the upcoming year when many adjustable rate mortgages are due for renewal/refi (aka the second wave). Most of these loans are upside down and I am guessing many of them do not have the cash to offset the value difference plus 10%+ down payment.
It may not be as bad as previous recessions now, but the outlook could be a lot lot worse.
02-26-2009, 10:14 AM
#87
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Originally Posted by NH_s2k_Guy,Feb 26 2009, 01:25 PM
Home heating oil dropped from $2.09 to $1.94 a gallon this week here in NH! 
02-26-2009, 10:19 AM
#88
there is a graph which maps current unemployment vs prior recessions since WWII
it is the rate of decline which has been the biggest concern.
Couple that with the lockup in financial markets and the declines that people see in their 401K may be why many people have a poor outlook moving forward.
it is the rate of decline which has been the biggest concern.
Couple that with the lockup in financial markets and the declines that people see in their 401K may be why many people have a poor outlook moving forward.
my 401 has lost almost 1/2 it value in the last 6 months
