Ok prognosticators, this is just for fun or misery depending on your view.

Predict the Dow/S&P bottom for 2020 just to see who is comes closest.

Tie breaker will be to include the date of the bottom.

Winner gets S2k bragging rights I guess, and a word document certificate suitable for framing.

 

DOW: 19,179.17
S&P500 1,853.84

Each Down 45.25%
On 12/16/2020

 

Too easy.

Dow 21,053 on March 23, 2020.
SP500 2,192 on March 23, 2020.

Bonus point: check out the Direxion 3X bull ETFs.

 

I think you are declaring we already hit bottom, but on that date the dow was 18,500. Meaning you intended to say that was the bottom, which would be my answer as well.

 

Why do you say that?

Don't you think we have tougher times ahead with so many people getting laid off and the effects of the shut down hasn't been reflected on companies earnings yet...

 

Fear took us to the initial low. Facts(earnings) will take us to a new low, I think a lower low.

I am thinking S&P 1,868. Not going to hold out for the 1,662 I also projected. I don't want to put a date on this as there is far too much of an unknown.
If I have to put a date down then I will go with April 29th.

 

I also see 1500-1800 on the S&P500 but can't comment on when it will happen. But rallies like today make me think the lows are already in. That's why I was curious what was @Harpoon 's reasoning for thinking so.

 

The market always bottoms before the coast is clear. Wait for the good news/solution/cure to show up to buy and you will buy at a much higher price.

 

Bear Market Rallies can be some 25%.

 

double bottom. current rally is a bear trap. Volatility is still way too high for this to be the bottom, and, most companies have not reported any new forward earnings report guidance. Wait for all of the Q1 earnings reports with new forward guidance to roll out later this month and next month.

I say 18 Nov 2020

S&P500 - 1750. Down 49% from the 3393 high on 18Feb2020.

I don't pay much attention to the DOW, so no calls there.

2008 to 2009 had numerous bottoms form (red arrows - S&P500 chart for reference. sorry for the lack of Y-Axis units, not really important for the point being made) before the market truly bottomed in March2009. Current rally is a dead cat bounce, bear trap, sucker's rally, etc. etc.
The market didn't bottom for quite some time after Lehman Brothers went belly up in September of 2008, although it did trigger another wave downward.




Jobless claims chart from the 60s to the present. More to come and likely to be worse.
The economy and analysts haven't had enough time to truly project the impact of 10 million unemployment claims, with another 10 million projected by July. This is unprecedented territory.
Also, just like the last recession, we should plan for a bunch of jobs to not ever return - a new normal is forming.

Covid-19 curve for the country still hasn't flattened out, and, short of a vaccine, the "all-clear" everyone back to work signal could very easily trigger a second infection wave...



And, finally, Warren Buffet is sitting on the sidelines. The only thing he's done so far is dump a bunch of airline stocks... He's not one to miss out on money making opportunities.