Official Let's Make Some Money Off Stocks Thread
09-09-2008, 05:04 AM
#944
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The whole commodity trade is unwinding. Don't expect the analysts to tell you that until it is over.
Ol is going to be < $100 today, almost there now. UBS says today that energy is a SELL and to buy consumer staples in a note to clients. How's that for timing?
Ol is going to be < $100 today, almost there now. UBS says today that energy is a SELL and to buy consumer staples in a note to clients. How's that for timing?
09-09-2008, 07:53 AM
#945
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Analysts seem to almost ignore "multiple contraction." It seems true that POT's business (and SQM and ...) remains strong and their prices (on their fertilizer) will hold up well through next year. But the stock price is a whole 'nother animal. If their past aggressive growth tapers off to just "great growth" the price the public is willing to pay for the stock (usually compared as the multiple of the earnings or PE) tanks badly. The market is so damn fickle. The company is going to do just fine but the stock suffers.
I'm feeling that pain on GOOG right now. It feels like multiple contraction to me.
I'm feeling that pain on GOOG right now. It feels like multiple contraction to me.
09-09-2008, 08:31 AM
#946
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Doesn't 'feel like it', it is* it. NOV has gone from 23+ to 13 flat. Many energy stocks or dollar related stocks have faced a similar fate.
Historically we still have a weighs to go, DOW 9500 or so roughly.
Historically we still have a weighs to go, DOW 9500 or so roughly.
09-09-2008, 08:37 AM
#947
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GOOG has issues I've seen first hand. First, in a weak economy advertising is the first expense to get cut. GOOG makes ALL of its money from advertising. Second, the quality of the ads GOOG is delivering has suffered. I think when it was new advertisers were willing to bet in it but now that some time has past and the effectiveness of the ads can be evaluated the advertisers are scaling back when money they are willing to pay for keywords.
So advertising is in the dumps and the price paid for keywords is way down leading to crappier and less relevant ads with fewer click-throughs. Final thought, you ain't seen anything yet. Get out of GOOG or buy some puts to shore up what you've got. I'm expecting GOOGs revenues to almost totally collapse when they report. Down 50% is not out of the question. I've seen a 50% decline in GOOG ad revenue this year compared to last. While s2ki's chunk isn't going to materially effect GOOG I'm probably not the only one.
Need a date? 'nuf said.
So advertising is in the dumps and the price paid for keywords is way down leading to crappier and less relevant ads with fewer click-throughs. Final thought, you ain't seen anything yet. Get out of GOOG or buy some puts to shore up what you've got. I'm expecting GOOGs revenues to almost totally collapse when they report. Down 50% is not out of the question. I've seen a 50% decline in GOOG ad revenue this year compared to last. While s2ki's chunk isn't going to materially effect GOOG I'm probably not the only one.
Need a date? 'nuf said.
09-09-2008, 08:41 AM
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Originally Posted by cthree,Sep 9 2008, 08:37 AM
GOOG has issues I've seen first hand. First, in a weak economy advertising is the first expense to get cut. GOOG makes ALL of its money from advertising. Second, the quality of the ads GOOG is delivering has suffered. I think when it was new advertisers were willing to bet in it but now that some time has past and the effectiveness of the ads can be evaluated the advertisers are scaling back when money they are willing to pay for keywords.
So advertising is in the dumps and the price paid for keywords is way down leading to crappier and less relevant ads with fewer click-throughs. Final thought, you ain't seen anything yet. Get out of GOOG or buy some puts to shore up what you've got. I'm expecting GOOGs revenues to almost totally collapse when they report. Down 50% is not out of the question. I've seen a 50% decline in GOOG ad revenue this year compared to last. While s2ki's chunk isn't going to materially effect GOOG I'm probably not the only one.
Need a date? 'nuf said.
So advertising is in the dumps and the price paid for keywords is way down leading to crappier and less relevant ads with fewer click-throughs. Final thought, you ain't seen anything yet. Get out of GOOG or buy some puts to shore up what you've got. I'm expecting GOOGs revenues to almost totally collapse when they report. Down 50% is not out of the question. I've seen a 50% decline in GOOG ad revenue this year compared to last. While s2ki's chunk isn't going to materially effect GOOG I'm probably not the only one.
Need a date? 'nuf said.
09-09-2008, 10:41 AM
#950
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Originally Posted by cthree,Sep 9 2008, 10:03 AM
Bah, Apple's event was a total waste of everyone's time. Not a single new product, 4 minor updates and thanks for coming. Lame.
Yes the conference was really lame.