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Old 08-31-2008, 09:51 PM
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You guys got any hurricane gustav trades in mind? This thing is hyped to be pretty big.

Long oil/ng? Short insurance companies? etc?
Old 08-31-2008, 10:37 PM
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Originally Posted by cthree,Aug 31 2008, 09:09 PM
You should have got into RIG a year ago when Jim Cramer was hot for it. The move in RIG I think is over. It had its run up and now all of those things you site are priced in. That is unless you think there is something in RIG that everyone has missed but after a solid year of pumping by Cramer I think it has given its all.

Why put money in RIG for a few percent when you can get the same return in cash with no risk? It's down 11% YTD, 22% in the past 6 months. You're on the back slope with this trade me thinks.
I bought in at 127 and 126 respectively, so I'm doing ok. I have been wanting to own a piece of this firm for a long time and it's at the levels where I want it. I got part of the massive run up on NOV and got out right near the top two times, both pretty lucky. Also, there just aren't that many attractive places to put more $ right now, when that changes (i.e. if AAPL gets a little cheaper etc.) I'll be ready.
Old 08-31-2008, 10:38 PM
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Originally Posted by ExOdy,Aug 31 2008, 09:51 PM
You guys got any hurricane gustav trades in mind? This thing is hyped to be pretty big.

Long oil/ng? Short insurance companies? etc?
Any trades are already made. Odds are you'd be on the wrong end even if you are right, be careful it's easy to do. Oil futures are barely up if I'm not mistaken.
Old 09-01-2008, 07:49 AM
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Looks like the storm is weaker than expected.


I am not playing the oil/NG play from the storm.


I agree that NG and oil has downward momentum......sentiment is definitely negative right now.


Old 09-01-2008, 08:08 AM
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Could see the testing of the 100 level relatively soon.
Old 09-01-2008, 08:47 AM
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I agree the American demand destruction for oil is real and will continue. But it could be balanced or even exceeded by increasing demand in China and India. If Tata gets their way (converting scooters & bikes to cars) India's consumption will skyrocket.

Doesn't RIG have multi-year visibility? And we may still open up American off-shore drilling.

I still want to pick up CHK around $40. I was too chicken when it got close recently.
Old 09-01-2008, 01:13 PM
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Originally Posted by cthree,Aug 31 2008, 06:47 AM
^ Just make sure you sell before the storm actually hits (if it does). The price of oil dropped 10% the day after Katrina hit and this time will be no different. The market NEVER underestimates the extent of the disruption. Expect oil back to $115 the second the thing makes landfall. Same for NG.
Looks like Erik's Magic 8 ball is right. Oil is at 111.x as of 5:13pm est. Guess were going to test the 100 level pretty soon.
Old 09-01-2008, 02:06 PM
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Originally Posted by PearlwhiteS2k,Sep 1 2008, 01:13 PM
Looks like Erik's Magic 8 ball is right. Oil is at 111.x as of 5:13pm est. Guess were going to test the 100 level pretty soon.
I definitely think we will test that....we are coming up on the fall shoulder season.......




Old 09-01-2008, 04:02 PM
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Damn, that was fast.
Old 09-01-2008, 04:11 PM
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Oil falling back to 111 and future for the DOW is up 33points. Might be a post Labor Day rally for the market tomorrow.


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