PearlwhiteS2k

I think Rimm didn't get a boost for the bold being sold in Canada because it was just a sell off day for the market.

dyu626

Hahha I know you like other sectors, I was just pointing out that you like to be overweight on Tech sector in terms of diversity.

lOOkatme

I am overweight in hot chicks as well.....and I am not going to diversify my holdings.

PearlwhiteS2k

Let's see how Sept will turn out for us

lOOkatme

Looks like NG is going to have a run up if this storm rips through the gulf.....especially at a cat 4-5.


Land based drillers will profit....UPL, XTO, CHK, KWK, GMXR.

I'll play it through UPL and KWK.

cthree

^ Just make sure you sell before the storm actually hits (if it does). The price of oil dropped 10% the day after Katrina hit and this time will be no different. The market NEVER underestimates the extent of the disruption. Expect oil back to $115 the second the thing makes landfall. Same for NG.

Penforhire

NG already had some weirdness. It over-shot a few days ago and then slumped, while the storm continued on course. I'm sure it will run up again but I wonder if it'll correct sooner-than-expected again?

cthree

My theory on Oil and NG is that they are both on a down cycle and being held up by supply concerns. Their natural course would otherwise be down. Every rally in the price has failed intraday. The price goes up 5% and then finishes flat or down for the day.

I would not be swimming upstream with this trade. Very dangerous. There are some stubborn energy bulls who would say I'm wrong but they will be ground up and served at McDonalds as 2 all beef patties in the end.

sahtt

I also agree they are on a down cycle. There is a ton of news of all sorts of new technologies and findings that are going to solve our little dilemma any time now. The retracement from the highs at this point though is substantial. GDP figures will continue to disappoint in Europe as the developing world does its best to maintain its already fantastic levels of growth. The U.S. has, best case scenario, 12-16 months left of pain and nervousness.

However, there are a few select ones out there, like RIG in all its prospects/cash flow/decreasing debt/proposed shareholder handouts/back log/deep water monopoly/8 P/E vs a 20 P/E only a few years ago, that should be bought if you lack energy in your portfolio around these levels for the longer term. I've owned EEV and DZZ for a month now, so my hesitation is not just talk-energy is not the safe bet it used to be in general. Obviously if you are down 30% on your oil holdings you already know that

I own RIG/NOV that are both teetering between red/green for me and are partial positions. I'll pick up some APA in the future.

Next week should be fun although I'm starting a major side project that will take up a ton of my time, estimating almost 40 hours a week. Oh well, you only live once, get rich or die trying.

cthree

You should have got into RIG a year ago when Jim Cramer was hot for it. The move in RIG I think is over. It had its run up and now all of those things you site are priced in. That is unless you think there is something in RIG that everyone has missed but after a solid year of pumping by Cramer I think it has given its all.

Why put money in RIG for a few percent when you can get the same return in cash with no risk? It's down 11% YTD, 22% in the past 6 months. You're on the back slope with this trade me thinks.