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Official Let's Make Some Money Off Stocks Thread

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Old 08-27-2008, 05:14 AM
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Originally Posted by magician,Aug 26 2008, 08:24 PM
Not to put too fine a point on it, but the word's "portfolio".
thanks for the correction
Old 08-27-2008, 11:19 AM
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Originally Posted by magician,Aug 26 2008, 08:24 PM
Not to put too fine a point on it, but the word's "portfolio".
since there was a letter missing and two out of order I think that correction was reasonable.
Old 08-27-2008, 11:20 AM
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when using the black-scholes option pricing model, what are consider the standard values for the standard deviation and the risk-free rate? i usually use the 10yrs treasury bond rate for the risk-free rate and the implied volitility as the standard deviation.
Old 08-27-2008, 12:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Khoa,Aug 27 2008, 11:20 AM
when using the black-scholes option pricing model, what are consider the standard values for the standard deviation and the risk-free rate? i usually use the 10yrs treasury bond rate for the risk-free rate and the implied volitility as the standard deviation.
The 10-year Treasury rate is a reasonable approximation to a (nominal) risk-free rate. The standard deviation is a value you'd have to compute from the price fluctuations of the underlying; there is no "standard" value. Make sure that you use an annual standard deviation, not a daily, weekly, or monthly value.
Old 08-27-2008, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Khoa,Aug 27 2008, 11:20 AM
when using the black-scholes option pricing model, what are consider the standard values for the standard deviation and the risk-free rate? i usually use the 10yrs treasury bond rate for the risk-free rate and the implied volitility as the standard deviation.
How to accurately determine volatility is a million dollar question that no one knows the exact answer to.
No one really uses BS model in the industry. Complex programs(usually involving MonteCarlo simulations) are run to price the various options.
I personally would not trust any option price found using the BS model.
Old 08-27-2008, 12:47 PM
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any opinions on tom2 vs grmn? wut gives? both trade under 9 PE with exellent fundamentals and margins. both near 52 week lows...
Old 08-27-2008, 12:52 PM
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[QUOTE=Khoa,Aug 26 2008, 01:21 PM] so far, i am down roughly 30% on my profolio, i'm just using option to get back some of my losses.
Old 08-27-2008, 02:17 PM
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Originally Posted by PearlwhiteS2k,Aug 27 2008, 12:52 PM
OMG your down 30% in your portfolio? May I ask what are you holding on to?
Myself YTD I'm up 11.5% right as of today. I have never used options before so I can't comment on it but at least it's only what u want to use instead of risking all your money in the market.

Erik quick question. How much will it cost me to buy 100-200 AAPL options?

Nate
congrats on your gain. i basically have positions in tech, financial, and speculative stocks which i shouldn't have mess with. it's like everything i touch decreases in value. i bought WB on the rebounce at 18 and some change and got slammed.
Old 08-27-2008, 04:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Khoa,Aug 27 2008, 02:17 PM
congrats on your gain. i basically have positions in tech, financial, and speculative stocks which i shouldn't have mess with. it's like everything i touch decreases in value. i bought WB on the rebounce at 18 and some change and got slammed.
I would direct you to the boring stocks...they actually perform better than the high fliers.


the boring stocks like energy, insurance, staples, services....things that don't go bad and people need.

if there is a growing population....its pretty easy to make money off a growing base if you are an industry leader.

I like coal right here...BTU and ACI for a long term position.

Old 08-27-2008, 04:58 PM
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i got hammered with enery stocks recently as well, and with regards to consumer staples, most of which are near its 52 weeks high and i can't see any catalyst that can drive them higher. i've been watching KFT for some time now, but haven't found a resonable entry point. i might reconsider some energy stocks once i hear more negative news or maybe on the next big declines.


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