Penforhire

That brings up a question for me -- Where do you guys find recent short interest numbers? The values I can find are too far out of date.

martha

^^^^ What brokerage company do you use? On TDAmeritrade, it's on the company overview page. I don't know if quotes are real time during trading hours if you don't log in, but you can see the overview pages for any stock without logging in, fwiw.

sahtt

RIG will not go much lower then an 8 flat P/E, it's a fraction of a point above that right now. If earnings keep up the stock will not go much lower, if you think that earnings will be damaged by lower oil prices there may be some rationale behind believing there is significant downside. It would be very difficult to convince me of that without oil dropping very hard and* OPEC sitting on their hands. Unlikely. CHK has a little higher P/E and trades much more volatile. I'm actually looking to get a nat gas stock once the commodity gets a little lower. Either way, you do not want an overly large portion of your portfolio for or against these stocks.

For better or worse there isn't constant changing dynamics with ATVI, YUM, HXL, etc. to talk about.

AZDavid

Great buy at $15 per share

lOOkatme

Whats even better is its a declining pennet....which is one of the most reliable indications that sellers are slowly leaking away and the buyers are going to come back into the market and bid the security up.

obviously news or fundamentals can squash technicals......but thats what the chart is saying.

reversal.

lOOkatme

RIG is rediculously inexpensive.....just forget about everything and buy it at these levels.


I have been accumulating anything that is rediculously inexpensive and has decent growth, the drillers fall into that category.....


DO, ATW, RIG....and a rig builder NOV.


I bought some Coal recently (ACI, BTU).

some NG (KWK, $23.50/share)

Some MA ($231)

they will all be good long term stocks to hold.


do people seriously believe oil can go under $80/barrel?

The marginal cost producers are probably pumping $80-100/barrel oil.

Penforhire

Martha, I'm using Scottrade and they don't show anything on short interest.

On RIG, I don't think oil price affects their fundamentals that much. They have huge visibility and a great niche (deep water drilling). Not to mention that oil is destined to rise in the near future (6-12 mos) anyway. But the market's emotional reaction is tied to oil. It just doesn't matter that PE is stunning. It probably is a buying opportunity, and I see CHK rising too, but I've failed to find every bottom in recent months so I'm trying for more patience.

lOOkatme

Why not just make them long term investments?

it seems that most people on this site aren't long term investors....why not?

lOOkatme

Alright, chew on this.


I am a long term investor....probably everyone on this site knows this. I have stock positions ranging from a couple of days (recent purchases) to over 4 years. some are down.....most are up....some up hundreds of percents. (more of my recent purchases (past months) are down some.



Let's just look at it from a tax perspective.....What would it take for someone to average a 12% return for 10 yrs doing 100% short term (under 1 yr) trading?


Assumptions

12% long term return over the 10 yr period. turning $10,000 into $25,937 in 10 yrs.
trading fees of $8/trade.
Short term trader traded 24 trades or 48 charges of 8 dollars = $384/year
taxes on short term cap gains assumed at 25%
I charged NO FEES for the long term investor.....yes, we need to initially purchase some stock....but I left it out.


And the results.....

A short term trader who returns 34% a year for 10 yrs has an actual return after fees and taxes of only 12%/yr.


OUCH!

Why short term trade?

sahtt

I just deal with what the market gives me. Previously there were only a couple long term plays I like and have since told them [AAPL] just because I "knew" they were going to fall. This is in reference to building new positions for the longer term. The market is givng me some great energy picks for the long term.

And Penforhire, the P/E's do matter, even on a short term basis. An 8 P/E isn't really remarkable for the sector of 9-12 P/E's in general, but eventually it becomes such a factor you can't ignore it. It's riding near those levels.