Official Let's Make Some Money Off Stocks Thread
08-11-2008, 12:05 AM
#603
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My plan for next week [mostly trading] is EEV and DZZ. I made both of those positions late last week and went ahead and held the small gains over the weekend and thanks to Russia that was a 'smart' move.
I spent about 3 hours friday evening going over the gold story. I went over chart after chart, read 'expert' opinions, drank a few glasses of wine pondering (which I'm about to do in a few minutes), and it's all fairly obvious.
Besides failing new highs, it traded miserably when every factor in the world told it to go higher. It's easier to see this when you have no position. Look right now at the futures market, I think gold is up one dollar, or a tenth of one percent, while russia invades Georgia and who the hell knows what could happen.
Oil is responding mildly, although it should be responding more, but gold has too many factors going against it. The dollar has broken through resistance with absolute confidence and continues to do so now as Europe trades. The Euro financial system is worse than most believe [still] and there will be ZERO net rate hikes and quite likely a little loosening of the pipes. The stock market is just going to go higher and it doesn't matter if it's war or financial disaster, the money is just flowing in net*.
Anyhow, that's part of my DZZ reasoning. As for the EEV, that's a bit more complex and is not longer term. If commodity prices continue to fall that's going to keep the global boom going along just fine in the face of almost any forseeable hurdle. The inflation numbers I've been studying and continually see underestimated are finally starting to rear their heads as china just posted 10% and at the same time there are cracks forming in the employment numbers all while geopolitical bs is just another obstacle. And economics is of no use in the markets...
I spent about 3 hours friday evening going over the gold story. I went over chart after chart, read 'expert' opinions, drank a few glasses of wine pondering (which I'm about to do in a few minutes), and it's all fairly obvious.
Besides failing new highs, it traded miserably when every factor in the world told it to go higher. It's easier to see this when you have no position. Look right now at the futures market, I think gold is up one dollar, or a tenth of one percent, while russia invades Georgia and who the hell knows what could happen.
Oil is responding mildly, although it should be responding more, but gold has too many factors going against it. The dollar has broken through resistance with absolute confidence and continues to do so now as Europe trades. The Euro financial system is worse than most believe [still] and there will be ZERO net rate hikes and quite likely a little loosening of the pipes. The stock market is just going to go higher and it doesn't matter if it's war or financial disaster, the money is just flowing in net*.
Anyhow, that's part of my DZZ reasoning. As for the EEV, that's a bit more complex and is not longer term. If commodity prices continue to fall that's going to keep the global boom going along just fine in the face of almost any forseeable hurdle. The inflation numbers I've been studying and continually see underestimated are finally starting to rear their heads as china just posted 10% and at the same time there are cracks forming in the employment numbers all while geopolitical bs is just another obstacle. And economics is of no use in the markets...
08-11-2008, 07:31 AM
#604
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Originally Posted by PearlwhiteS2k,Aug 9 2008, 01:52 PM
Dunno what other sectors I should buy. I own BMO.TO, AAPL, YUM, YGE
Get rid of YGE. It's Chinese AND it's energy. This ain't baseball.
Pick up a retailer.
08-11-2008, 08:13 AM
#605
Originally Posted by cthree,Aug 11 2008, 08:31 AM
Chemicals look good. I like DOW and am up 12% in it over the past month. They will continue to improve as oil falls. If you want a short term trade airlines for the same reason. What about automakers? GM and F have been beaten to death. I'm up 40% on my GM LEAPs.
Get rid of YGE. It's Chinese AND it's energy. This ain't baseball.
Pick up a retailer.
Get rid of YGE. It's Chinese AND it's energy. This ain't baseball.
Pick up a retailer.
08-11-2008, 10:45 AM
#607
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Thread Starter
Originally Posted by AZDavid,Aug 11 2008, 12:13 PM
There is no reason to sell YGE other than the volatility
Oil at $113/brl and falling and it being Chinese and way overbought are starters. The solar trade is an oil trade. Cheaper oil spells lower demand for energy alternatives. The Chinese trade is unwinding with the Olympics. It's been forecast for a long time. You seen the chart?
What is particularly bullish there?
08-11-2008, 02:19 PM
#608
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If it's a long term hold continue to check on the story and so be it. But as cthree mentioned, the chinese markets and oil markets are not where you want to be in the short to medium term. There will be exceptions but those aren't the odds you want in an already challenging environment. The fact oil didn't even turn green today is nothing less than alarming. Gold fell off a cliff [dzz!] and the only solar firms still making large moves [i think lkd did today just after the bell. it was mainly due to reduced silicone costs but i don't even know if that's a factor off hand in YGE's favor] are ones that smash earnings and let's be realistic-it's impossible for an american in america to have an advantage over anyone else regarding a chinese solar company's probability of having a blow out quarter.
Take a closer look at cthree's chart. Notice the fairly obvious resistance along the 15 dollar area. You'd need to check the volume against it but if I owned the stock I'd seriously consider putting a stop a little below that and just buying it lower, probably near 10$.
Take a closer look at cthree's chart. Notice the fairly obvious resistance along the 15 dollar area. You'd need to check the volume against it but if I owned the stock I'd seriously consider putting a stop a little below that and just buying it lower, probably near 10$.
