sahtt

Before getting this aggressive I'd suggest verifying some basic facts about this market.

Where does oil for the U.S. come from and at what percentage? What types of oil do we use in what proportions and who supplies us with which one? Does this apply to the rest of the world?

A more in depth question, although still mandatory for aggressive plays in that particular market IMO, is who has the ability to increase capacity and to what degree? Talk is cheap and 'the arabs', although they are not our primary supplier nor in general have the 'best' kind of crude, have before spoken confidently about raising production in the past and have failed to do so. Talk is cheap and history tends to repeat itself. There is significant evidence that most countries we get our crude from do not have the short term ability to significantly increase oil production. Is it true? It doesn't really matter but you want to have some degree of confidence whichever way you believe. If you are only 20% sure Saudia Arabia has the ability to increase oil production a fairly minute 500,000b/d you might play the news differently than someone who is 80% sure.

You'd also need to know the above because let's say a major line in Nigeria does get blown up. Are they a major supplier or not? Do you short the jump, try to catch some of the ride, or sit on the sidelines because you are smart enough to discern between an educated guess and a guess.

A note on DUG, you guys might recall me mentioning this a while back before everyone on CNBC started talking about it. DUG trades uniquely and you should watch it for a few days first. At certain levels the downside momentum is proportionally stronger than the upside momentum which is not supposed to occur but it does, IMO. If you are confident regarding oil I'd do it through solar. The trend is pretty obvious, if you are long FSLR you are long oil, and vice versa.

wifeb123

Id never put money into XM or SIRI. I just have it in there because I bought it way back before it all went downhill. Now I am stuck with it. No sense in selling it now until theres some runup. Then I can dump it.

wifeb123

An interesting take on the oil situation but I personally wouldnt mess with it. I think there are MUCH better things to short than Oil. Thats like some of the people that really want to short AAPL. I mean its GOING UP eventually either now or tomorrow or next month. Why try and play the game and catch it when it drops and get out before the rebound?

Instead you should go find a real loser, something that is really flawed in its evaluation with poor fundamentals and crap management and short that! Its alot less risk and probably the same return.

ExOdy

Sold out of GLD.

wantone

Still lurking and licking my wounds

PearlwhiteS2k

Guess I'll take some profits out of AAPL, since there is so much talks about Steve Jobs Health.

Bmahon

Be careful with the DUG, it isn't a direct oil short. It's a short of the Dow Jones US oil and gas Index which contains stocks that don't necessarily move in lock step with the price of oil (CHK, HAL, APA, HK). Look at the action today. Oil is down but the DJ oil and gas index is up. I would just short the USO if you want to actually short oil.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=%5EDJUSEN

Bmahon

I read an interesting story yesterday about that on CNN. I'm not a doctor but the information presented in the article seems to make sense. Apparently the surgery he had to remove the pancreas drastically alters the plumbing in your stomach. Because of this, your eating habits change and weight loss within the first few years is quite normal due to the changes. It doesn't necessarily mean you're unhealthy, you just lose weight.

no aapl position at the moment.

http://apple20.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/...er-the-whipple/

sleeper_s2k

good luck with V wantone, i'm liking that stock too and look at where MC is after their ipo

sold out of pot with 20% profit, looking for a dip to reload

any thoughts on DE as both ag and global play? the last earnings report beat it down a bit so it's looking cheap

i think there's a coal etf ticker kol for someone who had asked earlier

AZDavid

Selling POT today and waiting to get back in near the 50 day moving average.