PearlwhiteS2k

Oh just wait till the real players come back into the market.. Remember last summer it was all fine and good. Once sept hit and the big players were back. Didn't we see the market tanked to the grounds? Who knows if a big correction will occur but i rather buy later on than trying to ride this market up.

We did tank before the current run up past 9000.. we hung on from 8800 and down to about 8100 for the Dow a few times before seeing 9000+..The funny thing is nothing really has changed much beside the recession is about to end. Housing is still shit, banks aren't doing that great, unemployement is still high.

Just because the media is pumping out a little good news out and everyone is jumping all in into it. Same as the failure of lehman brother. The media made claim the world is ending and this and that. look how much % we drop during that phase. The Dow was up 500+ and than -1000+ weekly and a few times daily....

Myself i rather sit on 70% cash and than buy back maybe later on in late sept or early oct..

Regpaq

raymo19

This bear to bull market transition looks to me to be the classic "V" shape. If you're sitting on cash now you're missing some of the best days of the recovery.

Even if it turns out to be a "W" (and it well could) it still seems more prudent to me to hold and buy but set reasonable stops in case there's a downturn.

aklucsarits

Mortgage insurer Radian reported last night, and they had a surprise profit due to mortage loss claims that were nearly 1/2 of those projected. They are up well over 50% in this morning's trading, but the bigger news story may be the huge drop in mortage loss claims. Is it a result of an improving RE market, good risk management by RDN, the govt efforts to keep people in their homes, or some combination of those 3 factors?


http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...05-708074.html

"Radian Group Inc. (RDN) swung to a second-quarter profit on hedging gains and sharply lower-than-expected claims.

Shares were recently up 29.4% at $4.75 in premarket trading.

Chief Executive S.A. Ibrahim said the company was pleased it generated income during the period "despite a difficult environment with rising delinquencies." He said earnings were driven by loss-management efforts and unrealized hedging gains.

Mortgage insurers, which cover potential lender losses on loans to borrowers who can't come up with a 20% down payment, have been suffering from skyrocketing claims over the past year and credit-rating downgrades that have limited their ability to write new business.

The company posted income of $231.9 million, or $2.82 a share, compared with a year-earlier loss of $392.5 million or $4.91 a share. The results included hedging gains of $272.3 million in the latest quarter and $56.2 million in the year-earlier quarter. Revenue jumped 58% to $577.4 million on the gains.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected a loss of $1.58 a share on revenue of $284 million.

Loss provisions fell 78% to $132.8 million.

First- and second-lien claims were $167.7 million, far below expectations of about $300 million. The company expects claims of $275 million to $300 million for the third quarter, and again cut its full-year estimate to about $1.1 billion.

Net premiums written for insurance fell 27% to $161.9 million. "

Andrew

wifeb123

I agree. The worst is passed. We hit bottom way back in the 6k range on the dow. 600ish on the S&P. Were off that bottom and have been tracking up. Yes, there will be a pull back at some point...but all the bad stuff has been priced in. We went from 14k to 6k...but theres a TON of money (trillions) on the sidelines, sitting in cash or bonds, waiting to get back in the market. The economy and the indicators are lagging to stock prices by 6-12 months. Unemployment will continue to increase until next year..but those are all LAGGING whats really happening. Were rallying, and the more we do it, the more money comes off the sidelines and comes back into stocks. If you get in NEAR the bottom, youre good. If you wait and try to time it, itll be over before any of the indicators tell you.

Heres a great sign: VIX is at 25!!! When this whole recession started, VIX was near 90. We all said that we wouldnt come back into the market until the VIX came down. Its DOWN! All the fear and bad news is priced in. Its all realized. Theres no surprises coming. A bank could fail and wed see a small blip on the radar. We wouldnt fall back to the levels we saw in Q1. We'd just see a bailout anyway.

I agree with andrew, I bought a bunch near the bottom and I am just buy and hold from here on out. We are going to bounce around but I dont think were going lower than where we were and I dont think we will test those lows. We are already starting to set up a nice baseline in the 8k-9k range. We have taken each high, backed off, formed a better low and then risen right back up. We are seesawing our way right back up to 10k.

Even if things get worse, people will still take those trillions on the sidelines and eventually come back in. Everyone will try to get into before everyone else and right now its a mad dash to get good prices on solid companies.

Cyberous

Anyone know if this is short covering?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=Ai1KjyvO81...rA2ZpZw--?s=FIG

magician

Link's broken.

Cyberous

Sorry about that,.. check out the volume.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FIG

aklucsarits

You call THAT a short squeeze?

THIS is a short squeeze: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=rdn

12x avg daily volume and up 60%+ with an hr left to trade.

Andrew

Cyberous

Nice!

Just trying to figure out when to jump out is the problem,.. I seem to jump too early.

D