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Old 04-30-2009, 10:13 AM
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This rally has been as euphoric as the October decline was doom and gloom.

I believe the market has overshot to the upside and at some point in the near future will begin to react to negative news. Everything isn't all "green shoots" with the economy right now as the media and president would lead you to believe. At this point I would say the only people buying are the general public who are jumping on the rally late. When the market can't stay red for more than a couple hours at most that is an ominous sign. Try watching CNBC for an hour or so, everything is so positive it will make you sick. They have completely stopped reporting negative news. I am thinking about getting net short after the grand stress test announcement next week. That could be the final bullet in the government arsenal to pump the market.

Over 80% of this market rally since March 9th has occurred on the days that the government has announced a rule change or a bailout plan. Does that sound like a healthy market to you?
Old 04-30-2009, 10:28 AM
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Also, the dislocation in treasuries could get concerning. I am watching 3.50% as a piviotal point on the 10-year.
Old 04-30-2009, 11:45 AM
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Originally Posted by AZDavid,Apr 30 2009, 10:13 AM
Try watching CNBC for an hour or so, everything is so positive it will make you sick. They have completely stopped reporting negative news.
I disagree, CNBC and the media in general is so predictable.

If the day is green, everyone is optomistic, and everything is great.

If they day is Red,.. they bring out the doom and gloomers.

I personally have no clue where this market is going.
Old 04-30-2009, 12:22 PM
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Originally Posted by AZDavid,Apr 30 2009, 10:13 AM
This rally has been as euphoric as the October decline was doom and gloom.

I believe the market has overshot to the upside and at some point in the near future will begin to react to negative news. Everything isn't all "green shoots" with the economy right now as the media and president would lead you to believe. At this point I would say the only people buying are the general public who are jumping on the rally late. When the market can't stay red for more than a couple hours at most that is an ominous sign. Try watching CNBC for an hour or so, everything is so positive it will make you sick. They have completely stopped reporting negative news. I am thinking about getting net short after the grand stress test announcement next week. That could be the final bullet in the government arsenal to pump the market.

Over 80% of this market rally since March 9th has occurred on the days that the government has announced a rule change or a bailout plan. Does that sound like a healthy market to you?
I have been net short for 11 months and will continue to be for an undetermined yet substantial amount of time into the future.

Oh, and what's CNBC?
Old 04-30-2009, 12:25 PM
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sold a number of solar shares today (YGE, FSLR, ESLR) to lock in some decent gains. i tend to agree on the market being overbought so i'm starting to scale back.
Old 04-30-2009, 01:57 PM
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Does anyone keep track of their portfolio alpha, beta, r squared, and Sharpe ratio?
Old 04-30-2009, 03:12 PM
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Originally Posted by therookie,Apr 30 2009, 12:25 PM
sold a number of solar shares today (YGE, FSLR, ESLR) to lock in some decent gains. i tend to agree on the market being overbought so i'm starting to scale back.
smart move


Portsmouth eh?

I used to live in Lee outside of Durham and went into Pmouth a lot..cool town

i'll be there again in July for a wedding....feel like renting me your S for the day???
Old 05-01-2009, 07:05 AM
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I bought a nice chunk of Guidance Software (GUID) this morning. They make computer forensics software, and they are the market leader -offering pretty much the only enterprise product in this space. They have a market cap of $85 million, but have $36 million in cash on hand. They are still growing revenues steadily even in this environment, and they have been and will continue to a take over target.

Andrew
Old 05-01-2009, 08:10 AM
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I also bought some Data Domain (DDUP). They are a starup storage vendor with unique de-duplication technology to save on disk space. They are continuing incredible growth rates, and they are also very likely to get bought by someone (EMC? HP? IBM? Dell?).

Andrew
Old 05-01-2009, 08:11 PM
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Originally Posted by aklucsarits,May 1 2009, 09:10 AM
I also bought some Data Domain (DDUP). They are a starup storage vendor with unique de-duplication technology to save on disk space. They are continuing incredible growth rates, and they are also very likely to get bought by someone (EMC? HP? IBM? Dell?).

Andrew
Look at that short ratio


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