Official Let's Make Some Money Off Stocks Thread
02-20-2009, 06:45 AM
#1931
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Philly
Posts: 2,129
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Originally Posted by aklucsarits,Dec 29 2008, 05:50 PM
Cabela's (CAB) was down 23% today on basically no news. I bought some around midday. As far as I can tell, it looks like it was due to tax-loss selling combined with general fears about specialty retailers.
This specialty retailer sells camping and hunting gear - including GUNS and AMMO, and LOTS OF THEM. I don't know if any of you have a Cabela's retail store near you, but I was at the one in PA last weekend, and it was packed. There was barely anywhere to park in the lot. There was a line 20+ people deep to get to the firearms counter to buy guns and ammo.
Ever since the elections and the economic meltdown, there has been a massive spike in the sales of firearms and ammo. Firearms retail prices both new and used are inflated right now. Cabelas sells new guns, used guns, ammo, and other gun gear. I believe Cablea's will see massive benefits from the FUD about both potential future gun legislation and the deteriorated economic environment.
Andrew
This specialty retailer sells camping and hunting gear - including GUNS and AMMO, and LOTS OF THEM. I don't know if any of you have a Cabela's retail store near you, but I was at the one in PA last weekend, and it was packed. There was barely anywhere to park in the lot. There was a line 20+ people deep to get to the firearms counter to buy guns and ammo.
Ever since the elections and the economic meltdown, there has been a massive spike in the sales of firearms and ammo. Firearms retail prices both new and used are inflated right now. Cabelas sells new guns, used guns, ammo, and other gun gear. I believe Cablea's will see massive benefits from the FUD about both potential future gun legislation and the deteriorated economic environment.
Andrew
CAB is up big today on the results, but mostly due to short covering. Short interest was a whopping 19% of available shares at the end of Jan 09. Should this be the exit point or will we see a day or two more of surge in the price as the shorts cover? The stock is pretty thinly traded, only about 400,000 shares daily...
Andrew
02-20-2009, 01:21 PM
#1935
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 3,409
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Originally Posted by jimreaper,Feb 6 2009, 10:49 AM
What news?
It's gone up 50% in 2 days.
It's gone up 50% in 2 days.
I made some money today. Shorted BRK.B from the opening print for a 4 figure gain in about 15 mins. Went long BAC-L in the middle of the rally and did well with that too. Absolute insanity in the preferred shares today, absolute insanity.
02-22-2009, 01:53 PM
#1936
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Portsmouth, NH
Posts: 1,156
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Originally Posted by aklucsarits,Feb 20 2009, 04:02 PM
I'd like to add to an existing GE position. But I have a feeling we will be going even lower in the near term...
Andrew
Andrew
02-23-2009, 06:02 AM
#1937
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Philly
Posts: 2,129
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I just exited CAB this morning. It might have some more upside on the short squeeze in the next day or two, but it will not stay here forever.
The other issue I believe will be problematic for them is that firearms and ammo sales propelled their q4 earnings. But now firearms retailers are having trouble getting new inventory of both guns and ammo. The sales spike is so severe that retailers could sell all the prodcut they can get their hands on now. But the manufactureres cannot keep up, and product pickings are slim. And as I result, I suspect they may be in for a big letdown with this current Q's results
Andrew
The other issue I believe will be problematic for them is that firearms and ammo sales propelled their q4 earnings. But now firearms retailers are having trouble getting new inventory of both guns and ammo. The sales spike is so severe that retailers could sell all the prodcut they can get their hands on now. But the manufactureres cannot keep up, and product pickings are slim. And as I result, I suspect they may be in for a big letdown with this current Q's results
Andrew
02-23-2009, 07:47 AM
#1938
Administrator
Thread Starter
Originally Posted by trainwreck,Feb 20 2009, 02:17 PM
nobody buying at an 11 year low? i am assuming everyone is out of cash and scared.
has anybody on there been short the market the last few months?
has anybody on there been short the market the last few months?
I don't thing we'll see a real bottom until later this year, maybe Aug-Sept before the banking instability is resolved. I'm waiting for at least 10 banks to be nationalized before the shit is cleaned out of the market. I can't honestly justify playing a market where a large number of insolvent businesses continue to operate. There are at least 1000 insolvent banks right now who's doors remain open.
I stick to my earlier prediction of DOW 6000, S&P 600 and NASDAQ 1000.
That's the bottom. I'll wait for it.
02-23-2009, 07:07 PM
#1940
Administrator
Thread Starter
At this rate we could hit the 6000 bottom by Friday. I some ways I just wish they (the market) would just get it over with. People talk about confidence. We aren't going to see it until this market finally finds its bottom.