PearlwhiteS2k

Thanks Chris

s2kobsession

thats not advice, just what i'm doing and i dont always make good recommendations so dont follow it

AZDavid

I think we are overbought at these levels. We have gone from 7,800 to 9,600 on the Dow too quickly with little retracement.

hpark

I think we were massively oversold at 7800 and were due for a 15-25% pop. I think we'll be at 9500 at the end of 2008 and 10500 at the end of 2009 IMHO.

amao20

all this talk about overbought, oversold, market ignoring bad news etc., is redundant. the market has a relatively short term outlook (i'd say around 4-6 months), and even shorter memory. the sell-off in october was likely the market's realization that feb 2009 will be horrendous, as companies begin filing 4th quarter financial statements.

don't forget the "credit crisis" - news about how banks couldn't get capital was on television all day during the last couple weeks of october. the ted spread is back to "almost normal" levels today. the vix is also nearly 40 points off it's peak. there are less people trading on emotion, which usually means less selling.

my point is, you should not expect the market to trade 100% in line with "news". unexpected news will always be a catalyst for up or down swings, but in our current state, we are expecting horrendous/doomsday news. it's being brushed aside because the news was already baked into the market prices weeks/months ago.

sahtt

Exactly.. not hard to 'know' the market was oversold and was going to rise 15-20% after the fact.

lOOkatme

Whenever the markets sell hard....buy and hold long term.


commodities are the place to be for the next 10-20-30 years IMO.


I have stopped accumulating right now and will wait. I have already accumulated a lot when the selling climax was on......just riding out my longs and will continue to accumulate on pullbacks.

I like energy, agriculture, metals, some healthcare/2 large cap biotechs, and some select small companies.

inflation is around the corner......be careful.

Bond market is the next bubble.

OG-Rev

sahtt

I think I've seen that about 300 times now. We get it.

PearlwhiteS2k

I know it's not advice but it's good to hear what others are doing. I think I'm taking some profits off the table and buy back at a lower price.