Official Let's Make Some Money Off Stocks Thread
10-31-2008, 09:51 AM
#1543
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market was so oversold we were bound to see a 15-25% pop. I still don't think we hit bottom though....probably see retest of lows for the rest of the year. i'm personally in high dividend solid companies (good dividend track record for 20+ years).....that and some really beaten down mining stocks which "should" pop in 2009.
11-01-2008, 07:02 AM
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11-01-2008, 08:27 AM
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It's official, one if five home owners (20%) owes more than their house is worth and that figure is still accelerating. When I predicted this probably about a year ago I had some serious doubters (some even name callers). Unemployment will soon be 8-10% and unemployment duration will get near 12 full months, and GDP will break -1%. How this correlates with the equity markets is not so clear. Credit car usage and default rates are accelerating as well. Commercial loans via CC's are up more in the past two months than the previous ten months combined-unsustainable. If Obama is stubborn on his capital gains and 250k+/small business owner tax despite these figures, I would increase your downside hedges.
11-02-2008, 10:03 AM
#1547
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Must have been a LOT of houses sold in the last five years to make that 20% number true. If you bought before that, no way is your house worth less. I supose home equity loans could make up the rest. But if true, nowhere near 20% of homeowners would be willing to walk away from the home since their buy-in would still be higher today.
I think Cramer still has the housing bottom called right, maybe 10 months from now.
Don't you figure market downside, right now, depends on what the banks of other nations do? We've done almost everything we can, shot our wad. I was surprised to see our GDP not into the negatives yet, but gave me some optimism, along with earnings from AAPL and GOOG.
I think Cramer still has the housing bottom called right, maybe 10 months from now.
Don't you figure market downside, right now, depends on what the banks of other nations do? We've done almost everything we can, shot our wad. I was surprised to see our GDP not into the negatives yet, but gave me some optimism, along with earnings from AAPL and GOOG.
11-03-2008, 07:48 AM
#1549
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Changes in GDP are significant in nailing down where our economy is, in broad strokes. It means more to me than consumer confidence and new home sales. I'll agree the specific number isn't a tremendous value and they almost always revise it a few points later. But you weren't surprised to see ANY positive number? I was.
On the housing crisis, you're downplaying appreciation before the bubble. I live in one of the big up/down regions near LA, very similar to San Diego's values. Sure I'm down 50% from two years ago. But I'm still up 100% from just about 5 years ago!
I'll buy that equity loans caught more people out. But my point is those won't bankrupt in droves. Keeping the house is too important because the buy-in on the next house is too much. That's why I don't figure we're heading into the bottomless pit you hinted at above. But heck, I haven't been right much this year...
On the housing crisis, you're downplaying appreciation before the bubble. I live in one of the big up/down regions near LA, very similar to San Diego's values. Sure I'm down 50% from two years ago. But I'm still up 100% from just about 5 years ago!
I'll buy that equity loans caught more people out. But my point is those won't bankrupt in droves. Keeping the house is too important because the buy-in on the next house is too much. That's why I don't figure we're heading into the bottomless pit you hinted at above. But heck, I haven't been right much this year...
11-03-2008, 10:45 AM
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Originally Posted by Penforhire,Nov 3 2008, 08:48 AM
Changes in GDP are significant in nailing down where our economy is, in broad strokes. It means more to me than consumer confidence and new home sales. I'll agree the specific number isn't a tremendous value and they almost always revise it a few points later. But you weren't surprised to see ANY positive number? I was.
On the housing crisis, you're downplaying appreciation before the bubble. I live in one of the big up/down regions near LA, very similar to San Diego's values. Sure I'm down 50% from two years ago. But I'm still up 100% from just about 5 years ago!
I'll buy that equity loans caught more people out. But my point is those won't bankrupt in droves. Keeping the house is too important because the buy-in on the next house is too much. That's why I don't figure we're heading into the bottomless pit you hinted at above. But heck, I haven't been right much this year...
On the housing crisis, you're downplaying appreciation before the bubble. I live in one of the big up/down regions near LA, very similar to San Diego's values. Sure I'm down 50% from two years ago. But I'm still up 100% from just about 5 years ago!
I'll buy that equity loans caught more people out. But my point is those won't bankrupt in droves. Keeping the house is too important because the buy-in on the next house is too much. That's why I don't figure we're heading into the bottomless pit you hinted at above. But heck, I haven't been right much this year...
If what you say is true you're saying housing prices quadrupled in the 5 years since you bought? Where is this??? And if you're really up 100% then i'd consider selling right now because more pain is to come....100% gain in 5 years is not natural.