Penforhire

I still like the lithium play in SQM (Li-ion batteries in cars will consume MAJOR amounts of Li compared to cell phones and laptops) but it is only 1/3rd of their business. If fertilizer continues as it has, lithium should rise to 60+% of their business very quickly.

amao20

I've always been under the impression that advertising is not terribly affected negatively by economic slowdowns. some companies will recognize that their competitors have cut back on ad spending, and in turn will increase their marketing budget to improve their market position. the end result is that the company spending on ads during a recession will turn around quicker than the company that cut ad spending.

this is the BS I learned while getting my MBA. not sure how much it actually works.

sahtt

Interesting, not sure if the empirical evidence backs that up. More often than not, a struggling firm cuts advertising first. Not sure how the net industry advertising is effected though, it could be as you mentioned.

Penforhire

Hmm, possible since I'm not Madison Avenue type myself. But one thing I know for-sure happens in a big slow-down -- a higher percentage of your customers default on what they owe you for ads placed. Advertising is not usually a cash business.

amao20

Well, I should say that from my experience, consulting firms will boost ad spending during downturns to get attention. The company I work for is doing alot of selling right now, and employers are responding. I'm in employee benefits consulting, but my company does broad HR consulting.

I believe the opposite is the case as well. During booms, consulting companies feel a slowdown, as clients feel it is unnecessary to pay for consultants when business is good.

I caught a headline from my Scottrade account that Goldman upgraded YGE today. Just 2 weeks ago GS downgraded the entire solar sector. I'm really starting to believe the conspiracy theorists...

sahtt

Reaffirming the general long standing views on the CC industry, AXP's results appear to be pretty solid. AAPL tuesday, let's get the party started.

lOOkatme

You want to buy commodities when things look bad. And thats exactly what we have. Sure some of these commodity producers could go lower.....but keep accumulating them for the long haul.


We are going to have one hell of a time raising production for a lot of these materials going forward.

I am not saying buy all and any commodity....but there are some really great growth stories for small cap producers out there....especially right now.


They have much more robust earnings growth over the next 25 years than most other companies......and the product they sell never really goes out of style.


How would apple be doing if you hit a shortage in Gallium....or indium....or cobalt.

It sucks when those lithium ion batteries cannot be produced.....or if we hit peak copper or something.

There are a lot of materials that will have a tough time growing over the next 20-30 yrs. Buy at times when things look the worst.

aklucsarits

I bought some AAPL, PM, YGE, and some more FFIV earlier today. How's that for random?

I believe that FFIV is very likely to get bought by Juniper or maybe even Cisco. This is nothing but an educated guess on my part based on F5's current valuation, Juniper's (and Cisco's) cash horde, and the holes in Juniper's and Cisco's product portfolios that would be filled by F5's industry-best load-balancing products.

Andrew

lOOkatme

Good find.....yum yum.


Another good spot to look for miners is Cobalt.

We have a huge growth area in superalloys for aerospace.....and they are also used in lithium ion batteries.

Huge demand...tight supply....= big profits.

especially if you purchase strong companies...or a small company on the verge of going into the largest cobalt producing mine soon

lOOkatme

Just adding more.


Jim Rogers....Great investor...knows his history. (recent videos)

Commodities and inflation for the future.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=899318909

deflation/inflation? 1929 crash and now?, etc
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=899308138


This isn't a liquidity crisis, its a solvency crisis

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=899313677



Who is Jim Rogers?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Rogers



Make up your own decisions about the current crisis. Love to hear everyone's view.


Rick Santelli

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRDyMG7d2sY