Official Let's Make Some Money Off Stocks Thread
10-12-2008, 12:56 PM
#1421
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[QUOTE=sahtt,Oct 12 2008, 11:46 AM] lOOkatme I wouldn't put all your eggs in one basket, especially that one.
The dollar is going to get crushed.. in terms of what?
The dollar is going to get crushed.. in terms of what?
10-12-2008, 02:52 PM
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Originally Posted by lOOkatme,Oct 12 2008, 12:56 PM
The inflation of the money supply. They continue to debase US currency like no other before.
I know currencies are all relative to each other......but if all currencies inflate like hell....we will all get inflation. More dollars going after fewer products.
The depression still had the gold standard.....I get that....and I understand they had deflation....but they had the money supply contract by 25% yr/yr during that period.
We have Ben doing everything to inflate the money supply to no end.
I also am taking advice from Peter Schiff and the likes......he has a pretty damn good record of calling this stuff out.....
anyway, Peter Schiff can explain things better than I can. I think he makes perfect logical sense....and he has been dead on for a long while about previous crashes and the current crisis we are in.
Here are some clips.
10-8-08 Peter Schiff (Part 2 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QI2jH...eature=related
(Part 3 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfV0G...eature=related
(Part 4 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4N4UL...eature=related
(Part 5 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ttLlm...eature=related
Inflation and its history.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNBX--B0Czw
Jim Rogers recent interview
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/
What is Hyper-inflation, and can it occur under a depression?
Yes it can occur under a depression.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyper-inflation
Deflation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation_(economics)
I know currencies are all relative to each other......but if all currencies inflate like hell....we will all get inflation. More dollars going after fewer products.
The depression still had the gold standard.....I get that....and I understand they had deflation....but they had the money supply contract by 25% yr/yr during that period.
We have Ben doing everything to inflate the money supply to no end.
I also am taking advice from Peter Schiff and the likes......he has a pretty damn good record of calling this stuff out.....
anyway, Peter Schiff can explain things better than I can. I think he makes perfect logical sense....and he has been dead on for a long while about previous crashes and the current crisis we are in.
Here are some clips.
10-8-08 Peter Schiff (Part 2 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QI2jH...eature=related
(Part 3 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfV0G...eature=related
(Part 4 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4N4UL...eature=related
(Part 5 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ttLlm...eature=related
Inflation and its history.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNBX--B0Czw
Jim Rogers recent interview
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/
What is Hyper-inflation, and can it occur under a depression?
Yes it can occur under a depression.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyper-inflation
Deflation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation_(economics)
Here is some text directly from wiki from the link you posted why japan entered a deflationary period-
* Fallen asset prices. There was a rather large price bubble in both equities and real estate in Japan in the 1980s (peaking in late 1989). When assets decrease in value, the money supply shrinks, which is deflationary.
* Insolvent companies: Banks lent to companies and individuals that invested in real estate. When real estate values dropped, these loans could not be paid. The banks could try to collect on the collateral (land), but this wouldn't pay off the loan. Banks have delayed that decision, hoping asset prices would improve. These delays were allowed by national banking regulators. Some banks make even more loans to these companies that are used to service the debt they already have. This continuing process is known as maintaining an "unrealized loss", and until the assets are completely revalued and/or sold off (and the loss realized), it will continue to be a deflationary force in the economy. Improving bankruptcy law, land transfer law, and tax law have been suggested (by The Economist) as methods to speed this process and thus end the deflation.
* Insolvent banks: Banks with a larger percentage of their loans which are "non-performing", that is to say, they are not receiving payments on them, but have not yet written them off, cannot lend more money; they must increase their cash reserves to cover the bad loans.
* Fear of insolvent banks: Japanese people are afraid that banks will collapse so they prefer to buy gold or (United States or Japanese) Treasury bonds instead of saving their money in a bank account. This likewise means the money is not available for lending and therefore economic growth. This means that the savings rate depresses consumption, but does not appear in the economy in an efficient form to spur new investment. People also save by owning real estate, further slowing growth, since it inflates land prices.
* Imported deflation: Japan imports Chinese and other countries' inexpensive consumable goods, raw materials (due to lower wages and fast growth in those countries). Thus, prices of imported products are decreasing. Domestic producers must match these prices in order to remain competitive. This decreases prices for many things in the economy, and thus is deflationary.
Any of this sound familiar? All of it perhaps?
From the GD:
[I]The deflation of the Great Depression, as in 1836, did not begin because of any sudden rise or surplus in output. It occurred because there was an enormous contraction of credit (money), bankruptcies creating an environment where cash was in frantic demand, and the Federal Reserve did not adequately accommodate that demand, so banks toppled one-by-one (because they were unable to meet the sudden demand for cash
10-12-2008, 02:53 PM
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Futures are up and slowly gaining momentum. If we open up significantly, say 300-400, we will either get our 1,000 point rally or the forced selling will rear its ugly head at an alarming rate. Should be a good trading day regardless, pretty pumped up.
10-12-2008, 04:05 PM
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[QUOTE=sahtt,Oct 12 2008, 02:52 PM] I'll try to find the time too look at those videos but I still think you are missing a few major points you might want to look into with more scrutiny. We are currently entering a crisis extremely similar to Japan's in the early 90's. They have had interest rates among the lowest in the world for 15 years, deflation the entire way. The scenarios are not identical by any stretch, but if you bet on inflation you'd be bankrupt 50 times over.
Here is some text directly from wiki from the link you posted why japan entered a deflationary period-
* Fallen asset prices. There was a rather large price bubble in both equities and real estate in Japan in the 1980s (peaking in late 1989). When assets decrease in value, the money supply shrinks, which is deflationary.
* Insolvent companies: Banks lent to companies and individuals that invested in real estate. When real estate values dropped, these loans could not be paid. The banks could try to collect on the collateral (land), but this wouldn't pay off the loan. Banks have delayed that decision, hoping asset prices would improve. These delays were allowed by national banking regulators. Some banks make even more loans to these companies that are used to service the debt they already have. This continuing process is known as maintaining an "unrealized loss", and until the assets are completely revalued and/or sold off (and the loss realized), it will continue to be a deflationary force in the economy. Improving bankruptcy law, land transfer law, and tax law have been suggested (by The Economist) as methods to speed this process and thus end the deflation.
* Insolvent banks: Banks with a larger percentage of their loans which are "non-performing", that is to say, they are not receiving payments on them, but have not yet written them off, cannot lend more money; they must increase their cash reserves to cover the bad loans.
* Fear of insolvent banks: Japanese people are afraid that banks will collapse so they prefer to buy gold or (United States or Japanese) Treasury bonds instead of saving their money in a bank account. This likewise means the money is not available for lending and therefore economic growth. This means that the savings rate depresses consumption, but does not appear in the economy in an efficient form to spur new investment. People also save by owning real estate, further slowing growth, since it inflates land prices.
* Imported deflation: Japan imports Chinese and other countries' inexpensive consumable goods, raw materials (due to lower wages and fast growth in those countries). Thus, prices of imported products are decreasing. Domestic producers must match these prices in order to remain competitive. This decreases prices for many things in the economy, and thus is deflationary.
Any of this sound familiar? All of it perhaps?
From the GD:
[I]The deflation of the Great Depression, as in 1836, did not begin because of any sudden rise or surplus in output. It occurred because there was an enormous contraction of credit (money), bankruptcies creating an environment where cash was in frantic demand, and the Federal Reserve did not adequately accommodate that demand, so banks toppled one-by-one (because they were unable to meet the sudden demand for cash
Here is some text directly from wiki from the link you posted why japan entered a deflationary period-
* Fallen asset prices. There was a rather large price bubble in both equities and real estate in Japan in the 1980s (peaking in late 1989). When assets decrease in value, the money supply shrinks, which is deflationary.
* Insolvent companies: Banks lent to companies and individuals that invested in real estate. When real estate values dropped, these loans could not be paid. The banks could try to collect on the collateral (land), but this wouldn't pay off the loan. Banks have delayed that decision, hoping asset prices would improve. These delays were allowed by national banking regulators. Some banks make even more loans to these companies that are used to service the debt they already have. This continuing process is known as maintaining an "unrealized loss", and until the assets are completely revalued and/or sold off (and the loss realized), it will continue to be a deflationary force in the economy. Improving bankruptcy law, land transfer law, and tax law have been suggested (by The Economist) as methods to speed this process and thus end the deflation.
* Insolvent banks: Banks with a larger percentage of their loans which are "non-performing", that is to say, they are not receiving payments on them, but have not yet written them off, cannot lend more money; they must increase their cash reserves to cover the bad loans.
* Fear of insolvent banks: Japanese people are afraid that banks will collapse so they prefer to buy gold or (United States or Japanese) Treasury bonds instead of saving their money in a bank account. This likewise means the money is not available for lending and therefore economic growth. This means that the savings rate depresses consumption, but does not appear in the economy in an efficient form to spur new investment. People also save by owning real estate, further slowing growth, since it inflates land prices.
* Imported deflation: Japan imports Chinese and other countries' inexpensive consumable goods, raw materials (due to lower wages and fast growth in those countries). Thus, prices of imported products are decreasing. Domestic producers must match these prices in order to remain competitive. This decreases prices for many things in the economy, and thus is deflationary.
Any of this sound familiar? All of it perhaps?
From the GD:
[I]The deflation of the Great Depression, as in 1836, did not begin because of any sudden rise or surplus in output. It occurred because there was an enormous contraction of credit (money), bankruptcies creating an environment where cash was in frantic demand, and the Federal Reserve did not adequately accommodate that demand, so banks toppled one-by-one (because they were unable to meet the sudden demand for cash
10-13-2008, 08:30 AM
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i wish i had the balls to buy and sell in big chunks like that, sahtt. these giant up and down days could be extremely profitable for savvy day traders. though i imagine if you're caught on the wrong end, that could spell disaster but my bag holder's portfolio is pretty disastrous anyway.
i've been buying some blue chips/dividend payers. picked up ge and krft yesterday. looking for jnj, pg, cl, clx. i imagine i'll have a few months to save up the cash for these, so i'm in no rush.
i should have went with my gut and dumped some money into apwr last week. nearly $1b in backorders, yet they were taken down to $200m market cap last week. though the question is whether they are exposed to any short/medium term borrowing issues due to the ongoing financial mess. either way, i like them long term so i may consider picking up a small holding for the long term.
i've been buying some blue chips/dividend payers. picked up ge and krft yesterday. looking for jnj, pg, cl, clx. i imagine i'll have a few months to save up the cash for these, so i'm in no rush.
i should have went with my gut and dumped some money into apwr last week. nearly $1b in backorders, yet they were taken down to $200m market cap last week. though the question is whether they are exposed to any short/medium term borrowing issues due to the ongoing financial mess. either way, i like them long term so i may consider picking up a small holding for the long term.