Spikes/Losses in Residuals for 2010
06-08-2010, 07:49 AM
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Spikes/Losses in Residuals for 2010
http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/arti.../306079991/1142
Check out Ford!
Gainers, losers
These 10 brands showed the biggest gains in projected 36-month residual values when compared with those of 2005 model vehicles.
Projection for 2010 model yr. Point increase from 2005
Suzuki 46.70% 12.6
Ford cars* 48.80% 11
Mazda 54.10% 10
Hyundai 46.10% 9.1
Buick 43.10% 8.2
Dodge 41.80% 8.2
Kia 42.40% 8
Subaru 54.00% 7.8
Chevrolet cars* 42.50% 7.5
Mitsubishi 43.60% 6
These 10 brands showed the biggest residual value losses when compared with the 2005 model year.
Projection for 2010 model yr. Point increase from 2005
Porsche 44.40% 8.2
Volvo 43.30% 4.4
BMW 47.40% 3.7
Jeep 43.00% 3.3
Infiniti 51.40% 3
Ram trucks 40.80% 2.9
Mercedes-Benz 45.80% 2.9
Land Rover 48.30% 2.6
Chrysler 39.40% 2.1
Acura 51.80% 2
* ALG projects car and truck residuals separately for Ford and Chevrolet.
Source: Automotive Lease Guide
Check out Ford!
Gainers, losers
These 10 brands showed the biggest gains in projected 36-month residual values when compared with those of 2005 model vehicles.
Projection for 2010 model yr. Point increase from 2005
Suzuki 46.70% 12.6
Ford cars* 48.80% 11
Mazda 54.10% 10
Hyundai 46.10% 9.1
Buick 43.10% 8.2
Dodge 41.80% 8.2
Kia 42.40% 8
Subaru 54.00% 7.8
Chevrolet cars* 42.50% 7.5
Mitsubishi 43.60% 6
These 10 brands showed the biggest residual value losses when compared with the 2005 model year.
Projection for 2010 model yr. Point increase from 2005
Porsche 44.40% 8.2
Volvo 43.30% 4.4
BMW 47.40% 3.7
Jeep 43.00% 3.3
Infiniti 51.40% 3
Ram trucks 40.80% 2.9
Mercedes-Benz 45.80% 2.9
Land Rover 48.30% 2.6
Chrysler 39.40% 2.1
Acura 51.80% 2
* ALG projects car and truck residuals separately for Ford and Chevrolet.
Source: Automotive Lease Guide
06-08-2010, 08:36 AM
#3
Per that article, Subaru and Mazda (54.0% and 54.1% respectively) will have higher residuals than Honda and Toyota (53.7% and 51.0% respectively)?
Hmm.
Hmm.
06-08-2010, 08:43 AM
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^After some experience in examples of each company's new cars, I would tend to agree. Mazda and Subaru, IMO, have stepped up their quality game while Honda and Toyota have rested on their laurels and even dropped some - specifically the Camry and Accord.
06-08-2010, 11:10 AM
#5
Problem is, I've yet to see a Mazda holding its value particularly well. The Mazda3 and 6 depreciate fairly quickly, the 6 especially. The Mazda5 drops like a rock. The CX7 and 9 don't appear to be that bad. The Miata is actually pretty good.
Still, for bread and butter cars, I'm not thinking Mazda is strong, based on my local prices at least.
Subaru is very strong in winter climates but in the South, they're dirt cheap. I can buy used Subarus for far less than a Honda Civic in Texas, used. I was looking at them for my brother in Texas and couldn't believe how cheap you can get one that's just two years old.
Still, for bread and butter cars, I'm not thinking Mazda is strong, based on my local prices at least.
Subaru is very strong in winter climates but in the South, they're dirt cheap. I can buy used Subarus for far less than a Honda Civic in Texas, used. I was looking at them for my brother in Texas and couldn't believe how cheap you can get one that's just two years old.
06-09-2010, 07:28 AM
#6
Originally Posted by JonBoy,Jun 8 2010, 08:36 AM
Per that article, Subaru and Mazda (54.0% and 54.1% respectively) will have higher residuals than Honda and Toyota (53.7% and 51.0% respectively)?
Hmm.
Hmm.
Sorry, the last 2 years have been good to Subaru and us owners 
06-11-2010, 11:21 AM
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It is tough for me to absorb the information as posted. It is clear they are showing who the most improvement in retaining value and who has fallen back the most.
I still find it useful to know where that leaves us as to which vehicles retain value best and worst, so I'm just culling this for my use, by best to worst value retention and how it has changed.
Sorted by Best to worst value
Mazda, 54.10% up 10
Subaru, 54.00% up 7.8
Acura, 51.80% down 2
Infiniti, 51.40% down 3.3
Ford cars*, 48.80% up 11
Land Rover, 48.30% down 2.6
BMW, 47.40% down 3.7
Suzuki, 46.70% up 12.6
Hyundai, 46.10% up 9.1
Mercedes-Benz, 45.80% down 2.9
Porsche, 44.40% down 8.2
Mitsubishi, 43.60% up 6.0
Volvo, 43.30% down 4.4
Buick, 43.10% up 8.2
Jeep, 43.00% down 3.3
Chevrolet cars*, 42.50% up 7.5
Kia, 42.40% up 8.0
Dodge, 41.80% up 8.2
Ram trucks, 40.80% down 2.9
Chrysler ,39.40% down 2.1
Is there a reason they didn't want to post numbers for Toyota and Honda besides saying "residuals remain strong". Even if there change is just 0.0 points, these 2 companies are too big to just leave off the list. Baffling.
I still find it useful to know where that leaves us as to which vehicles retain value best and worst, so I'm just culling this for my use, by best to worst value retention and how it has changed.
Sorted by Best to worst value
Mazda, 54.10% up 10
Subaru, 54.00% up 7.8
Acura, 51.80% down 2
Infiniti, 51.40% down 3.3
Ford cars*, 48.80% up 11
Land Rover, 48.30% down 2.6
BMW, 47.40% down 3.7
Suzuki, 46.70% up 12.6
Hyundai, 46.10% up 9.1
Mercedes-Benz, 45.80% down 2.9
Porsche, 44.40% down 8.2
Mitsubishi, 43.60% up 6.0
Volvo, 43.30% down 4.4
Buick, 43.10% up 8.2
Jeep, 43.00% down 3.3
Chevrolet cars*, 42.50% up 7.5
Kia, 42.40% up 8.0
Dodge, 41.80% up 8.2
Ram trucks, 40.80% down 2.9
Chrysler ,39.40% down 2.1
Is there a reason they didn't want to post numbers for Toyota and Honda besides saying "residuals remain strong". Even if there change is just 0.0 points, these 2 companies are too big to just leave off the list. Baffling.
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06-11-2010, 11:53 AM
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It would really be nice to know if these numbers were based on MSRP or transaction prices. Some of this might not be based on a change in actual resale but instead a reduction in MSRP. Many of these numbers are based on MSRP which is rarely the actual purchase price. Heck a year and a half ago a friend of mine bought a new Chevy truck that listed for $32k for $19k. That was 40% off! If he sold it the next month for $18k would it be reasonable to say his truck lost 40% in one month?
My Contour SVT was discounted about $3000 when I bought it. So based on MSRP I lost about 14% before I actually bought the car! Since I was also considering an Accord at the time when I sold it I estimated what the Accord would have sold for. Based on what I expected to pay for the Accord and what I thought it would have sold for (both based on actual prices of similar cars) I figured the actual resale value of my Ford was about the same as the Accord. The big difference was the Ford took a big hit while new.
It's great to see GM and Ford resales going up but I would like to know how this study calculated resale so I can decide if this is higher resale because people are now willing to pay more for a used Ford or if this is higher resale because Ford simply cut the sticker price down to something closer to the real price of the car.
My Contour SVT was discounted about $3000 when I bought it. So based on MSRP I lost about 14% before I actually bought the car! Since I was also considering an Accord at the time when I sold it I estimated what the Accord would have sold for. Based on what I expected to pay for the Accord and what I thought it would have sold for (both based on actual prices of similar cars) I figured the actual resale value of my Ford was about the same as the Accord. The big difference was the Ford took a big hit while new.
It's great to see GM and Ford resales going up but I would like to know how this study calculated resale so I can decide if this is higher resale because people are now willing to pay more for a used Ford or if this is higher resale because Ford simply cut the sticker price down to something closer to the real price of the car.
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