zze86

Not looking to get political here but with the whole US/Iran situation looking like it could literally explode I am wondering what impacts there will be on the automotive landscape.

Iran is of course an Oil country. They are the 2nd largest OPEC supplier and the world's 4th largest supplier of crude oil with about 10% of the proven reserves. While the US doesn't buy oil from Iran, the oil that Iran does pump out does help keep our prices low.

Given that any escalation will have some impacts to the region, and in particular the Straights of Hormuz, oil refinement and shipments will significantly decline and oil prices will rise accordingly.

It's no secret that the past few years oil has been relatively inexpensive. This of course has led to relatively inexpensive gas prices which has literally fueled the growth of the crossover market as well as fueled the HP wars. Crossovers have been doing so well that 2/3 of the major US auto manufacturers are phasing out cars in favor of crossovers.

What are your thoughts/concerns about what may come in the next few months/years?

mosesbotbol

Not that worried. Not as many are buying oil from Iran as you state. The US is now producing more oil than ever. KSA can increase oil production to make up any loss that stricter sanctions on Iran has. Years? That's too far off to predict. Oil today is at $67, so it's already up $15 from a year ago. I am sure we'll hit $80 in 2020.

TsukubaCody

I personally cheer increased oil prices (if it translates to less use and not only well filled pockets for Petro companies), though war with Iran is not the way to achieve that.

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vader1

Oil prices could go up but I don't think we are in for a huge spike. There is plenty of production that shuts down (tar sands) when prices are too low and picks back up when the price rises so you get more product into the market.

I don't think Iran will have any huge impact if you are not in the military and being shipped over there, but I do see car sales dropping. Not because of Iran but if you pay attention to personal finance articles, most consumers in the bottom half of income earners have pretty much tapped out their credit for big ticket items. I expect a few years of slower sales before there is pent up demand again. If we by some unforseen circumstances get a recession and rock bottom deals with huge incentives, I am going to add a Wrangler as a third vehicle for sh!ts and giggles.

vader1

If you own any indexed mutual funds, their loss is your loss.

I really don't root for anybody to take it in the shorts, except for New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers. WOOT! If you hate oil companies, stop driving a car or buying anything made from plastic, or driving on asphalt roads. Otherwise, you are supporting their business model.

rob-2

It’s just more of the same from that region. We export fuel now. Russia can pump more, Canada is messy but viable and there is more oil to be found. Heck we just discovered more today. The world is a wash in oil. Iran isn’t exactly Irrelevant but I think in the near future they will be.

when you think about it, it’s pretty amazing oil is so easily found and that we consume it as we do.

TheDonEffect

I'm not overly worried, they're no longer the largest producers and I think we get alot of our stuff from down south, sorry my oil macroeconomic knowledge is very dated. Will we see a short term spike, sure, but unless this turns into a true world war 3 it wont matter much. The politics are complex, but my basic understanding of it tells me that a all out world war situation is off the books.
We should he focusing our attention on Africa, southeast asia, etc, but I digress. Additionally, Iran should be smart enough to know to just stall and wait at most 4 more years until the next president to smooth everything over.
Lastly, with all the attention on electric and alt energies now, oil companies are doing their best to keep prices down. Every large spike almost always come with significant progress with alt energies. So short answer, no I dont think we will be seeing $6/gallon for gas anytime soon.

darcyw

Not worried. Gas prices- high or low or in-between- is the price to play. That being said, I'm glad another F terrorist is dead.

darcy

TsukubaCody

i don't care about money. Money doesn't matter when the world faces dire consequences of climate crisis.

I do my best to limit my oil consumption, but large corporations and idiotic wars do much more harm than any individual.

He wasn't a terrorist.

He was a high ranking government official on his way to a meeting to discuss peace. He was then assassinated by the US government. The US committed an act of war/aggression without any provocation. The US government was also the one who broke off the nuclear nonproliferation agreement. The US government then attempted to justify the assassination with lies. Suleimani (and Iran in general) had not been involved in 9/11.

Get your facts straight before making ignorant statements.

silvio1522

Thanks for the clarification there Lefty. Now pass the Kool-Aid.