Emil St-Hilaire

Vote Poil de Lièvre !!!

TommyDeVito

Subaru just had an announcement on this subject:

​​​​​​​https://media.subaru.com/pressreleas...standard-north

darcyw

I agree, Joey- I never thought I'd care about the political party in power north of the 49th, but man oh man, the current situation has to change.
darcy

zeroptzero

Exact same with me Darcy. It is so bad on so many fronts , I could go on for hours, we have gone from the penthouse to the outhouse in a few short years. Forcing us to stop buying ICE is wrong, next on the list is natural gas home heating, it is all coming down the pipeline. It burns me up.

TheDonEffect

Which is why I'm thinking the EV event horizon is further out, because a few years ago it was supposed to be zero ICE by 2033 set by VW's example. Subaru has clearly changed their business structure and is still one of the smaller OEMs on the market, wouldn't even consider them influential either, and considering that their branding is very much in line with green type lifestyles, going with that trend seems to make sense. For instance, if it becomes conventional wisdom that EVs were bad for the environment, I'm sure Subaru would pivot from EVs as well.

Subaru I think struggles harder than Toyota/Honda to make competent drivetrains that meet emissions, similarly to VW, so this pivot makes total sense.

IIRC, their new Solterra isn't selling particuarly well either, because while greenies like the political statement of EVs, greenies I imagine don't want range anxiety when they're on expedition trying to capture a selfy with a bear.

darcyw

Careful about that burning thing...they'll put a carbon tax on that too

darcy

vader1

Pierre will fix it.

Anywho, I want to put my finger on what I think is the main problem right now with EV's in general for a majority of the population. Range and charging. EPA estimate are based on some city (where EV's do wonderfully) and highway (where they do much worse) and the stated range is not what you will get on a long road-trip style drive, I think mainly due to greater drag at higher speeds. I want to point out two recent things in Car and Driver. First is the latest issue has an article about the newest Model 3, however these numbers refer to the current Model 3 and not the update:

"Niether came anywhere these estimates in our own range test, performed on the highway at a steady 70 mph: The base car went just 211 miles (61 short of the EPA range) and the long Range car went just 250 miles (108 miles short)."

So before anyone says "Telsa mileage claims are the MOST optimistic of any automaker, I know that. It does hold true though that nearly every EPA estimate for range is a bit high for road trip driving because it assumes some city driving. Car and Driver's test is also at fairly normal (near optimal) temperatures. So the 250 miles you would get at 70 mph in a Model 3 long range may be even lower at 74 mph and in cold or really hot weather.

The second piece from C&D is from a letter to the editor in the Backfires section of the Nov 23 issue:

"As an early adopter of a Tesla Model, I enjoyed reading what you had to say about charging and range. You did, however, leave out one factor to consider when buying an EV and that is battery degredation. It is an unfortunate characteristic of lithium-ion batteries that the more you charge and discharge them, the more capacity you lose. My Tesla is four and a half years old and has done 64,000 miles. My battery has dropped 11%. The car I bought with a potential range of 310 miles, now has a potential range of 275 miles."

I leave off the rest of the letter but he states Tesla will replace the battery if it drops over 30% in the 10 year warranty period. So buyers are left with a dilemma. Buy cars that have a range that is probably great for day in and day out commuting and errand running and covers 95% of their driving. But when they need to pack the car and head out for the weekend, or to Grandma's for Thanksgiving, or taking the kids to Disneyland it will come with some hassle.

It will most likely be three hours, find a working charger, (hopefully with no waiting line) and sit for 30 minutes (or more). Drive for three hours, find another working charger (hopefully without a waiting line) and sit for 30 minutes. Drive the rest of the way and find another to get a full charge for the next day. Can it be done? Yes. Is it a hassle? Yes. Can it possibly be nightmare if there are no working chargers or long lines during holiday or weekend travel? You bet your sweet bippy. And as the car ages, the problem is more and more magnified. Maybe the Tesla Model Three Long range is now getting you 180 miles 40 degree weather on the highway when it is 7 years old.

As a buyer, I keep thinking, we are one breakthrough and at least 5 years of infrastructure improvement away from wanting one. I think a lot of people are in that boat. For me personally, what would tick the box for me is a shorter range daily runabout that is sporty as hell, costs $40k or less, and is just a box made for fun daily travel. The two seat concepts from Mazda and Toyota, if offered in that kind of configuration would get my deposit in a heartbeat and I would commute the hell out of them. But I am lurching toward retirement, which puts me in a different place than people who have 20+ years of commuting ahead of them, and want something for long haul travel, so taking the plunge on an EV makes zero sense. I want something that will travel comfortably, eating miles without any worry and a range of 500+ is extremely easy with a gasoline car.

Until that issue is a complete non-issue, I don't think you will get anywhere near the sales numbers automakers were hoping for for a long time, unless you just outlaw gasoline car production, which for hundreds of reasons, be a huge mistake.

TommyDeVito

5%, probably less than that. I drove a 84 mile range EV as my sole car for 3 years, Feb 2014-2017. You know what I did when I had to go out of town or “Disneyland”? Rented a gas vehicle. Oh the trials and tribulations! They rent cars?

TheDonEffect

Agreed Vader, hence my reservations on the EV event horizon being a little later than most would think.

I think alot of people, especially those who could afford any Tesla for instance, embrace new technologies and enjoy the novelties of new tech. However, more value oriented consumers who need something to work will approach EVs with a very discerning perspective, and I think this is where the market is sort of stalling. Tesla's first mainstream model was the Model S, which was effectively a 7 Series/ S Class level luxury car, which really appealed to the crowds who can afford luxury but prefers a more "I'm smarter than you" vs "I have money" image. The market is clearly highly saturated at this high end area of the market. However, it has definitely stalled once they started to come into the more entry level market, needing government subsidies, carefully controlled social media, etc etc to maket them viable.

As you mentioned, some people speak fondly of oh hey road trips are cake, I take the family, we make our first stop, take a nice break, oh it was so pleasant the kids got to run around, we had a coffee, and before my TSLA stock dipped, we were on our way, easy peasy. So then I ask, if you were driving from the bay area to LA, and wound up in a snow delay on the grapevine, what do you do then? Zero charging stations, altitude, snowing temperatures, 200 miles from your starting point and another 100 miles to your destination, while having to sit in the car with the heater on. Screw that, I'm taking gas.

The affluent also typically have a reserved/designated parking spot if not a garage used to house vehicles (you laugh, but they're frequently converted into living spaces here, or just plain storage since many homes are still older styles with tiny closets), and are more likely to have a designated parking spot of sorts at work with charging stations.

We live in an era where the car has to remind you to bring it into service, where people continue to need roadside assistance because they ran out of gas or locked their keys in their car, so we're supposed to expect this gene pool to understand range and plan out routes?

Then there's the infrastructure. Here in CA with PG&E, it took how many towns being burned down by wildfires before they started (emphasized started) to underground lines in those areas. We still get random gas leaks due to the aging infrastructure. We still get brown/black outs during the summer months, and our electricity costs are high, and as things become more relied upon, the more it's likely to be taxed, which means more costs. If Thanos snapped his fingers and everyone had EVs today, you think CA would eat all the tax revenue lost from gas? And do we think the utility companies are going to pay to build up/update the infrastructure out of social goodwill?

Then there's the very real, very present issue of securing materials to build these vehicles at scale.

Hence, I don't believe EVs will be the maintstream by 2033, but I do believe hybrids sure will. And I know many of us are resistant towards hybrids as fun sporty cars, but there was a time when it was NA or bust, or manual rack steering, ok ok hydraulic, now electric steering is the norm and people are making the sacrifice for better performance. Engine bays that had no space to service on your on were hated on, and now you can't even see the engines in 911s.

I'd say it's easier to work on the electrical side of a hybrid drivetrain than it is to replace turbos on a 300ZX TT. I keep forgetting the names of the hybrid systems, but instead of using the Toyota system where the ICE engine turns on/off, and we use the Honda system where the ICE engine is always on, yeah I could get behind a nice sounding V6 NA hybrid with a manual over a V6TT. I4 turbo hybrid? Sure why not, look at the issues Toyota is having with diff cooling, imagine instead of a driveshaft and diff they just had an electric motor and battery outback instead. I guess I'm old enough now that dyno queens no longer appeal to me.

zeroptzero

I would be okay with an EV but my weekly work trips are not compatible right now . I would love to never stop at a gas station again, but I don't want to stop off a highway to super-charge at higher cost electrical rates for 45 minutes on my weekly trips. If I lived close to work it would be an easier choice.

My current hybrid seems like the perfect option for me right now, no complaints and fuel cost is much lower than my other vehicles.

I think they should mandate all vehicles to be hybrids by 2030, and still allow ICE in that structure, no mandate full EV's.