Buffet says all cars will be electric in 20yrs
12-02-2009, 05:01 AM
#21
Originally Posted by Steponme,Dec 1 2009, 11:32 PM
Of course! A country of 1.4 BILLION people will take a long time to improve anything. However, China's government is LOADED!!! Many of its citizens are poor but the government is so loaded, it could buy the whole world. 
Think about this. What will happen to China's reserves when the US devalues the dollar with it's current monetary and fiscal policies? China won't move significantly away from the dollar either because it will kill their exports and hurt foreign relations.
On top of the fact China is still communist and represses it's citizens. Overall, not a big fan, but I do respect their growing economic power.
12-02-2009, 05:45 AM
#22
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Originally Posted by Bboy AJ,Dec 2 2009, 12:20 AM
Let's keep this investment in the proper perspective.
Buffet is on his way to the grave. He's almost 80 years old. Buffet is also a big time philanthropist. Do you think he went all in because he thinks electric cars would take off and make money in doing so? Or do you think he went all in because he wants electric cars to take off?
Buffet appears to be a good person. I don't know him personally so I can't say he is a good person. I wouldn't call this a straight business deal. It seems to be more of a philanthropic endeavor. However, it's very likely he will make money from this.
Buffet is on his way to the grave. He's almost 80 years old. Buffet is also a big time philanthropist. Do you think he went all in because he thinks electric cars would take off and make money in doing so? Or do you think he went all in because he wants electric cars to take off?
Buffet appears to be a good person. I don't know him personally so I can't say he is a good person. I wouldn't call this a straight business deal. It seems to be more of a philanthropic endeavor. However, it's very likely he will make money from this.
12-02-2009, 05:52 AM
#23
Originally Posted by Gigdy,Dec 2 2009, 09:45 AM
$230 million is not all in. Sorry to burst your bubble. But that aint crap to him.
Remove the "all." My point stands.
12-02-2009, 06:06 AM
#25
Originally Posted by QUIKAG,Dec 1 2009, 01:56 PM
Are you kidding? Do you have any idea how much unrealized gain Buffett currently has in GS? Try over $2B at today's price just on the warrants on a $5B initial investment. That's on top of the 10% pref dividend. To call his purchase of GS pref stock bad timing just boggles my mind.
Again, I can only wish I'd be 1% as good as him (or have 1% of his fortune so I can afford certain risks, but I digress).
12-02-2009, 06:08 AM
#26
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Originally Posted by TheDonEffect,Dec 1 2009, 12:58 PM
I'll never say that I'm a better investor or will ever be half as good, but when buffet got into goldman, I said uhh it hasn't hit bottom yet. The only reason why it didn't tank worse than it did was because he endorsed it, and even then it still went down.
Buffet always said that you should only invest in what you understand, which was his excuse why he didn't make a killing in the dot com era, but goldman was his area of expertise and didn't quite call it all that well.
With that said, it's a no duh that cars are definitely shifting to more electric, but to say all? Based on the way things are today I don't see why especially considering I see 20 year old cars driving around all the time, and considering how much better cars have gotten I don't see that changing. Why would someone pay 20K+ for a new electric car which will surge their electric bill vs. a 4K beater when gases are at affordable levels again (don't tell me gas is gonna surge to 5 bucks a gallon in under a year, historically that just is not the case). If gas becomes too expensive and everyoen switches to electric, i.e. coal, what do you think will happen with coal prices? Nat gas?
Definitely a growing segment, but considering all the usual suspects are at the forefront of development, I don't see where the good investments are. Perhaps coal/copper/etc commodities?
Buffet always said that you should only invest in what you understand, which was his excuse why he didn't make a killing in the dot com era, but goldman was his area of expertise and didn't quite call it all that well.
With that said, it's a no duh that cars are definitely shifting to more electric, but to say all? Based on the way things are today I don't see why especially considering I see 20 year old cars driving around all the time, and considering how much better cars have gotten I don't see that changing. Why would someone pay 20K+ for a new electric car which will surge their electric bill vs. a 4K beater when gases are at affordable levels again (don't tell me gas is gonna surge to 5 bucks a gallon in under a year, historically that just is not the case). If gas becomes too expensive and everyoen switches to electric, i.e. coal, what do you think will happen with coal prices? Nat gas?
Definitely a growing segment, but considering all the usual suspects are at the forefront of development, I don't see where the good investments are. Perhaps coal/copper/etc commodities?
12-02-2009, 06:10 AM
#27
Originally Posted by Bboy AJ,Dec 2 2009, 06:52 AM
Is this supposed to deflate my point? I think we all know $230 mil isn't all-in to Buffet. It says in the OP that all-in is $34 billion.
Remove the "all." My point stands.
Remove the "all." My point stands.
I hear what you're saying though, but he's def not going all in, and if he loses all of that money (which he wont because hes smart to invest in things with enough assets to make sure he comes out with some of his money), it'll put a small wrinkle in berkshire's stock, mostly cuz of the bad pr.
12-02-2009, 07:05 AM
#29
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I don't see it happening, not in that timeframe anyway. Car time is second only to geological time and 20 years would be extremely fast turnaround, especially with scant few full electric cars even on the drawing boards.
The other challenge this prediction faces is the vice-like grip of competing industry- namely the oil companies. These guys aren't just going to give up and walk away, their influence is deeply woven into our political system and they use that to shape policy in their favor.
As TheDonEffect said, Buffett's core competency is in not stepping outside his areas of expertise, and that's what this feels like. Not saying his investment in the battery industry isn't a smart one, but nevertheless his name doesn't spring to mind when I think of car industry experts.
A weird thing about the car biz, for some reason people from other industries always think they can do it better. Like the recent attempt from the Silicon Valley dot com'ers. Don't get me wrong, the car industry model is far from perfect, but the root causes run far deeper than some spiffy new business plan can solve for. These issues are national and even global in scale. Generally what the startup types find after arriving in the car biz is that things are the way they are because that's how they are and the only exceptions are in small volume niches.
The other challenge this prediction faces is the vice-like grip of competing industry- namely the oil companies. These guys aren't just going to give up and walk away, their influence is deeply woven into our political system and they use that to shape policy in their favor.
As TheDonEffect said, Buffett's core competency is in not stepping outside his areas of expertise, and that's what this feels like. Not saying his investment in the battery industry isn't a smart one, but nevertheless his name doesn't spring to mind when I think of car industry experts.
A weird thing about the car biz, for some reason people from other industries always think they can do it better. Like the recent attempt from the Silicon Valley dot com'ers. Don't get me wrong, the car industry model is far from perfect, but the root causes run far deeper than some spiffy new business plan can solve for. These issues are national and even global in scale. Generally what the startup types find after arriving in the car biz is that things are the way they are because that's how they are and the only exceptions are in small volume niches.
12-02-2009, 08:35 AM
#30
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the only way electric anything will make sense is if we go nuclear.
basically infinite power with not that much waste.
i mean there are plans laid out so that if there is ever a huge blackout on one of the coasts that can't be solved quickly, they will just plug in a few nuclear subs and let them power most of the major cities... and those are just peanuts compared to a full sized reactor.
basically infinite power with not that much waste.
i mean there are plans laid out so that if there is ever a huge blackout on one of the coasts that can't be solved quickly, they will just plug in a few nuclear subs and let them power most of the major cities... and those are just peanuts compared to a full sized reactor.