TheDonEffect

It is interesting following what Toyota has been doing in the EV space. It may perhaps be confirmation bias on my part, but I largely been reluctant to accept that EVs will be the only thing on sale by 2030, or even 2040. Take a larger portion? Sure, but to eliminate ICE I'm just skeptical, there are just too many infrastructure and practical challenges that I don't see an end to yet. I sorta go back and forth with this alot, because on the one hand I just don't see a 3 minute charge happening for 300+ miles, on the other hand it's far easier to install chargers than it is to build a gas station, meaning anywhere a car is parked can theoretically turn into a "gas station". Like a parking meter could theoretically double as a charger. But then most city grids and power production would not be able to handle the change, here in CA we already struggle keeping up with current demand. Politically, if relying on foreign oil is a topic of discussion, what about foreign lithium and lithium technology, because China is essentially cornering that market. The political implications of having to play ball with China vs the Middle East where we actually don't even get most of our oil from, we're fairly well diversified vs China is having as close of a monopoly as it is comfortable. The one shortcoming of capitalism vs whatever China is calling their system now is we need to rely on the private market to figure it out, raise funding, etc, China has the mobility to pursue these markets with the full backing of public funds. I would love people to chime in on this, my knowledge here is awkward at best.

But going back to Toyota, I read an article recently where Toyota is perhaps slowing their EV approach some considering Germany just backed out of the pact of going all EV, expressing some of the concerns I mentioned, largely the practical/infrastructure challenges. So yeah, totally agree with you, I'm glad Toyota is still developing cars that people can afford and practically use, while most EVs are priced more aspirationally than practically, and making those vehicles more desirable.



Yeah, I drove my share of Priuses, and while they won't replace anything sporty in terms of fun, as an appliance I've driven things that were soul crushing whereas there is something interesting with driving a Prius. That brief moment on throttle when it's on full electric gives it a sense of peppiness that straight gas high MPG cars don't have. And they're remarkably composed, there is a sense of a sophisticated chassis/suspension setup even if it is setup for practical comfort, it just doesn't feel crude for its price. And the fact that they're annoyingly well thought out and practical is very endearing, like the amount of crap that can fit in those things given its size, mpg, and cost is rather astonishing. I now have two friends who were all car guys who bought Primes and now will never not have one. They talk about their mpgs and gas cost driving to Tahoe like we talk about ring times. Toyota seriously really figured those cars out.

vader1

Two points.......

First, everyone has probably seen that chart that show full adoption to replace ICE vehicles with EV's would takes many times the amount of some minerals we know to exist. I watched a youtube video, and I can't vouch for the factual basis, but taken at face value the speaker was referring to some study that we had roughly enough of the needed minerals to build about 500 million EV's. (forget that you also need some of those same minerals to build cell phones, military hardware, and laptops) We have a global fleet of about 3 billion vehicles. Toyota has said they were sticking with hybrids because they could build about 4 Priuses for each battery pack in some of the longer range EV's.

Second.....once you build those 500 million EV's and use up those minerals, you can only replace them with either new ICE, Hydrogen, or however many EV's you can get from recycled old EV's. You will hit a maximum number of EV's and need to use gas, or the plan is for Klaus Schwab to choose who gets a car and who uses their sneakers.

TheDonEffect

Yeah I've glossed over similar articles that essentially say similar things, but I don't recall coming across those numbers, but they largely shared the same stark perspective- it's not sustainable. Anecdotally, there has been a supply shortage for chips and other materials for smart phones since before the pandemic, hence the crazy buyback pricing, so you scale up to a vehicle and it wasn't beyond my reasoning that car OEMs will have a steeper challenge. If you've ever seen a Tesla battery in person, the enormity of the thing is something to take in while holding your phone next to it, along with how many computers, etc etc.

It's like sausages, people know what it's made of, but there's a dissociation between the animal and a sausage. So people hear Tesla is building gigafactories, that Elon geniused a solution that we will have all the batteries we need, not knowing that gigafactories just make batteries, but don't mine or convert lithium. They're essentially the butcher making the sausages, not the rancher raising and processing the cattle.

But going back to what you were talking Vader, the EV enlightened are quick to point out that we pessimists who love to pollute and plunder the planet aren't taking into account that there will be innovations and such that will solve some of these challenges, such as shifting towards other materials. My pessimistic response to that though is that people seem to think that EVs are some brand new tech that the world has never seen before, and yes there are countless patents being generated, but largely EVs are not new, just improvements on existing technology thought up decades, if not generations ago. So considering that learning curve on building on existing ideas and principles, and then looking at the space where innovation/progress has to occur to solve these challenges, and then looking at the due date, I just don't see how that math equates.

I mean alot of this was spearheaded by Volkswagen coming out saying they're going full EV, and that was the signal flare since they were the first major OEM to do that, sparking the conversation. But people forget that VW just came off the crippling dieselgate fiasco, and we're supposed to trust their decision making in that EV is the way to go, when they were the company essentially peddling the same thing with diesel not too long ago? And now they're home country is softening their position on EVs.

Going back to my own biases though, I do hope that the pendulum swings back, that conventional wisdom doesn't accept that by 2030, or 2040 for that matter EVs will be the only thing on sale, because if that happens I have a feeling the used car market prices for cars we want/love will go back to the way things were and I can finally stop having to talk about ADM/overpricing/etc. A guy can hope right? lol.

Anyway, Toyota does seem to go about their business in a very methodical, thought out manner, so it will be interesting what the other OEMs will do in the next few years. I think OEMs though are fixated on the relatively higher profit margins building EVs bring, hence all these new competitors entering the space, but wouldn't dare to enter ICE because the barrier of entry that building ICEs create.

ssbfgc

Looks like a hopped up model Y.

vader1

Well, the Prius was once the inspiration for the "smug" episode of South Park and ten years later was old hat. I really hope the attractiveness of this car brings back huge demand and some perspective about a multi pronged approach to cutting our usage of "x". Quite frankly, this spares more pollution than an EV Hummer, and is affordable for people who can at least afford to go car shopping these days.

With the exception of the NSX, we almost entirely skipped over the possibility of what we could do with hybrid sports cars. (yes I know Porsche and Ferrari built one or two)

TheDonEffect

Great episode, and believe me I live a stone's throw from Berkeley, that episode was spot on.

Well, I think there was a concerted effort in making sports cars hybrid, but over time I think the OEMs figured out it made more sense to either go full ICE or EV, going hybrid added in a complication that within the exotic/hyper car realms didn't make sense, those resources were almost always better used towards one route or the other. Aside from Koenisegg really, I think that's about it these days.

Downstream in everyday priced cars, the same sorta logic applies. The added complication will either increase cost and weight, so if you're trying to keep costs down and deliver an endearing car (86, Miata, hot hatch) the cars will be heavier and more costly. If you try to get to that mid range, well ICE and EV powered cars already can make all the power that's financially viable in all of the tiers. Really, the only benefit would be to meet CAFE standards.

Honda tried with the CRZ and it failed. Granted, EV tech has come a long way, so perhaps now is the ripe time to do it because at the end of the day, efficiency= performance, and hybrids are definitely more efficient than ICE. But again, why go hybrid when you could go simpler and go EV? My thoughts would be emissions and a prospective buyer doesn't have a situation where charging an EV is convenient enough.

Like the Rav4 base vs hybrid, it's pretty much a 2k upgrade which gains you more power, mpg, and AWD. So if they offered a GTI/Si level FWD hot hatch, theoretically going to an AWD hybrid hotter hatch could only be a nominal fee. I mean consider that Honda charges 13k more to from Si to Type R, VW charges about the same for a GTI to Golf R, it is something that seems to make sense especially if the electrified portion of the system is as bullet proof as the Prius.

Of course cars like the Rav4 benefit from a ton of scaling to keep that upgrade cost low, and enthusiasts love to pay to play, but looking at everything there definitely seems to be a viable case.

Hmm, perhaps I've been looking at this wrong, here's something to chew on, I've just been thinking about hybridizing Civics, Corollas and Golfs, and all of those cars began as humble, gutless cars that were turned into Type Rs, GRCs, and Rs, but getting those caught up to take advantage of being a hybrid would require alot of compromise like trunk space or a new platform, but where else does Toyota have a humble, gutless appliance, that happens to be a hatchback, that already has the infrastructure of a hybrid? The Prius. What if they just GR the Prius? (yeah yeah I know they make a Corolla Hybrid)

Oh man, I'm here for it.The only issue is that with Toyota's synergy drive vs whatever Honda called theirs, it all but eliminates the possibility of a stick shift.

JonBoy

It takes about eight years and MILLIONS of dollars to bring the infrastructure to an "electric" station that would provide the required 5MW of power for a dedicated recharging area capable of recharging vehicles at the same rate as a typical gas station. The space requirements are five-fold (minimum) as cars have to be able to park, not just roll in and out to refuel.

Sure, you can add a few chargers without much issue but the minute you want to be a charging station, everything changes.

This is my space these days. I head a national team focused in this area (among others). I was at a conference a while back and the CEO of a major utility said, "Utilities NEVER overbuild!" That means that they won't build unless there is actual demand. That means they won't build a powerplant until AFTER the demand is there and they won't build the transmission and distribution (T&D) assets unless there is a customer waiting on the other end. As such, utilities LAG demand and when you're talking years and BILLIONS of dollars to upgrade T&D assets to provide the kind of power needed for EVs for "everyone," it becomes very obvious that we cannot and will not have 60% EVs by 2030. We don't have the infrastructure for it. I talked to the planning people at that same utility and asked, "Who is deciding if and when to build? How are you going to support these initiatives?" They just shook their heads and said, "We have no idea but we don't have plans to do any of it at this time." They are projecting a moderate increase in power demand (1-2% a year) and that's it. When I lived on the west coast, a friend of mine was an engineer at the provincial utility and I asked him how many cars they could support as EVs using the current grid infrastructure. He said "10%, at most." That province is nearly at 10% EVs for new vehicles sold (though not that high for all vehicles in use) but that's a sobering reminder. Another friend of mine in the same province bought a Tesla and got a Level 2 charger installed and he was the last person that got a charger because they couldn't handle any more power demand of that type in that development.

It'll take government intervention (ie, investment) in T&D to get ahead of the curve. Practically speaking, we're already behind because to hit 2030 goals, we needed to have started five or ten years ago. Material availability, labour shortages and planning and permitting all conspire to slow this down.

If you want to read a good book, look up Vaclav Smil's "How the World Really Works." It's eye-opening and it'll show you the PRACTICAL problems the world faces in trying to eliminate fossil fuels quickly, much less trying to cram EV technology (or anything else) down our throats and thinking it'll be the silver bullet that saves us all. The simple fact is, their plans would destroy the environment to save the climate. It can't work and won't work and they're ignorant enough to not realize they are walking a fools' road to financial ruin with no clear benefit.

silvio1522

Looks like I'm in the minority. Not a Fan. Never liked the look of Jelly Beans, or Tear Drops no matter what badge is on the front. Musk has convinced a lot of people that they're cool though. Prefer the UX250h, or Leaf, to this, but I'm sure these will fly off the shelves.

Bullwings

It looks better than any of the latest offerings from BMW.

Doubtful - history shows that has not been the case - declining sales since 2013. Interesting perspective from road and track - Prius is an enthusiast vehicle.

https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a4...siast-vehicle/

TommyDeVito

I guarantee this will heavily increase sales. The problem with the car has been image for image buyers, who make up the bulk of the new car buying. That’s sorted now so this will sell a f ton better.